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marnixR
Post  Post subject: hurricanes and global warming  |  Posted: Thu Sep 07, 2017 12:15 pm
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I must admit I don't understand this one :

What caused Hurricane Irma? Did climate change cause this Category 5 tropical storm?

what is it with the statement that "Hurricane Irma, like Hurricane Harvey, was not caused by climate change."?

in the end, higher air temperatures allow for more humidity, which results in more rain
also, higher ocean temperatures make it easier for more destructive storms to develop, so how can you then maintain that global warming plays no role in the formation of tropical storms or hurricanes ?

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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: hurricanes and global warming  |  Posted: Thu Sep 07, 2017 1:44 pm
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It's like saying, "This individual cigarette caused Bill's lung cancer." Well, no. If we're trying to be accurate, that's not true. No individual cigarette causes lung cancer. It's the collective behavior over time. Much the same with climate. Individual hurricanes are not "caused" by global warming, but the trend from that warming is definitely towards more severe and energy-rich storms.

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Lynx_Fox
Post  Post subject: Re: hurricanes and global warming  |  Posted: Thu Sep 07, 2017 2:10 pm

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Another way to look at it, if you look at the conditions...namely weak upper level wind shear and warm water temperatures, you'd probably find conditions favorable for tropical storm formation even when you remove recent the climate change.

What pisses me off about the article is it doesn't' emphasize the huge boost to the speed of strengthening, energy available for tropical storms once they do form, the unusual depth of warm water now available.

Consider if Harvey formed in 1970--with Gulf water a couple degrees cooler, shallow enough for winds to stir up cooler waters from beneath and sea level a foot lower. Harvey would not have have been as strong...perhaps not even become a major hurricane, lost strength as it approached the coast by mixing below the warm surface layer, rain would have been at least a foot less and dikes would have held. The net result would have a much smaller area flooded and overall less impact.


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marnixR
Post  Post subject: Re: hurricanes and global warming  |  Posted: Thu Sep 07, 2017 7:33 pm
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i can see sceptics still arguing that it's not climate change when we're all up to our necks in 6ft of water

imo when the current batch of storms are made more destructive because of higher temps, then to my eyes that's global warming at work - stating anything else appears to be pandering to denialist faction

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Falconer360
Post  Post subject: Re: hurricanes and global warming  |  Posted: Thu Sep 07, 2017 8:09 pm
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marnixR wrote:
i can see sceptics still arguing that it's not climate change when we're all up to our necks in 6ft of water

Which is likely to happen given the number of skeptics in Florida alone...

Sorry I don't anything of value to add to this thread, it still just amazes me that so many people are still skeptical.

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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: hurricanes and global warming  |  Posted: Fri Sep 08, 2017 1:07 am
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Posted a few hours ago:

https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environm ... tics-farce
Quote:
It is difficult to appreciate, from up close and with so much else going on, just how deeply and ceaselessly bizarre US climate politics has become. Limbaugh is a good case study, but he’s not the only one. Several bits of recent news — for instance, Trump’s nomination of a climate denier with no science credentials to lead NASA — serve to illustrate the same point. American climate politics have gone from frustrating and weird to ... parody? Farce? Reductio ad absurdum? It’s difficult to know the right term. But it ain’t healthy.
(...)
Refuting the last few scientific arguments for denial is not going to bring conservatives around. Clever new ways of talking about climate action are not going to bring conservatives around.

Research on public opinion shows that conservative opinion is responsive to one thing above all else: the cues of conservative elites. People don’t have strong opinions on political “issues” one way or the other. They believe and do what people like them believe and do, and they take their cues on that from trusted tribal leaders.

To put it more simply, conservatives will tend to believe on climate change whatever people on Fox (or talk radio) tell them about climate change.

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Lynx_Fox
Post  Post subject: Re: hurricanes and global warming  |  Posted: Fri Sep 08, 2017 4:46 am

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"Clever new ways of talking about climate action are not going to bring conservatives around."

Not sure I agree with that. There seems to be at least some evidence that talking about the good past in an emotional way, rather than shouting about the sky falling or just unemotional projections seems to resonate. Rather than show yet one more map of South Florida submersion after most of us are dead-- show an adorable elderly couple reminiscing about their wonderful Honey Moon in the Keys--with a bit of sadness, it's something their grandchildren will never experience.


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geordief
Post  Post subject: Re: hurricanes and global warming  |  Posted: Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:36 am

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Lynx_Fox wrote:
"Clever new ways of talking about climate action are not going to bring conservatives around."

Not sure I agree with that. There seems to be at least some evidence that talking about the good past in an emotional way, rather than shouting about the sky falling or just unemotional projections seems to resonate. Rather than show yet one more map of South Florida submersion after most of us are dead-- show an adorable elderly couple reminiscing about their wonderful Honey Moon in the Keys--with a bit of sadness, it's something their grandchildren will never experience.


I am hoping the renewables economy will ,as LBJ said grab them by the balls. Get on the train or be left at the station.

Bypass their "critical" faculties.


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geordief
Post  Post subject: Re: hurricanes and global warming  |  Posted: Sat Sep 09, 2017 10:10 am

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http://www.nydailynews.com/news/nationa ... -1.3478206

"Floodwaters from Hurricane Harvey were so heavy they caused Houston to sink about 2 centimeters, according to a California geophysicist
"

That is eye watering. I wonder if there could be there any connection between these storms and the Mexican earth quake? (described as the largest in a century )


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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: hurricanes and global warming  |  Posted: Sat Sep 09, 2017 11:52 am
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I'd had a similar thought... that maybe a tectonic plate was already slipping and the weight of this water was just enough to push it farther....then, boom! Earthquake. I'm curious what our geologists think about that one.

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geordief
Post  Post subject: Re: hurricanes and global warming  |  Posted: Sat Sep 09, 2017 12:10 pm

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iNow wrote:
I'd had a similar thought... that maybe a tectonic plate was already slipping and the weight of this water was just enough to push it farther....then, boom! Earthquake. I'm curious what our geologists think about that one.

This BBC video claims that sea levels (around Miami,I suppose) have risen by 3 inches since 1992 (the year Andrew hit)

I don't understand why it should be such a high rise.Do sea level rises differ greatly in degree around the world owing to local variations?


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Lynx_Fox
Post  Post subject: Re: hurricanes and global warming  |  Posted: Sat Sep 09, 2017 5:56 pm

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geordief wrote:
iNow wrote:
I'd had a similar thought... that maybe a tectonic plate was already slipping and the weight of this water was just enough to push it farther....then, boom! Earthquake. I'm curious what our geologists think about that one.

This BBC video claims that sea levels (around Miami,I suppose) have risen by 3 inches since 1992 (the year Andrew hit)

I don't understand why it should be such a high rise.Do sea level rises differ greatly in degree around the world owing to local variations?


Actually, it's more like 8" since 1992 with an accelerating rate that approaching an inch a year.

And yes sea-level rise is not going to be even, for a variety of reasons, among them: near melting ice sheets there will be less gravitational forcing from the decreasing ice, so rise will be lower than average and thus higher than average elsewhere (other considerations aside); thermal expansion will be higher where there are concentrations of rapidly warming and deep waters, current, and wind driven changes etc.


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geordief
Post  Post subject: Re: hurricanes and global warming  |  Posted: Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:59 pm

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Lynx_Fox wrote:
Actually, it's more like 8" since 1992 with an accelerating rate that approaching an inch a year.

And yes sea-level rise is not going to be even, for a variety of reasons, among them: near melting ice sheets there will be less gravitational forcing from the decreasing ice, so rise will be lower than average and thus higher than average elsewhere (other considerations aside); thermal expansion will be higher where there are concentrations of rapidly warming and deep waters, current, and wind driven changes etc.

I forgot to post the link to the video which mentioned rising sea levels in Florida.

http://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-can ... or-florida


But "approaching an inch a year" sounds alarming.


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Lynx_Fox
Post  Post subject: Re: hurricanes and global warming  |  Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2017 7:52 pm

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Here's a blog that includes some data and a pretty good discussion about the recent past rates of sea level rise and uncertainty.

https://tamino.wordpress.com/2016/04/08/florida-flood/


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IanZonja
Post  Post subject: Re: hurricanes and global warming  |  Posted: Mon Sep 25, 2017 3:20 pm

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Here is an article about climate change that makes hurricanes even worse. http://www.evolving-science.com/environ ... orse-00388
Actually, hurricane Irma made island Barbuda inhabited after 4000 years. http://www.ancient-origins.net/news-gen ... ars-008798

Hurricanes are really nasty.. and it could be even worse! But I think technology will save us from hurricanes


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PhDemon
Post  Post subject: Re: hurricanes and global warming  |  Posted: Mon Sep 25, 2017 10:16 pm

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How? That is quite a sweeping statement, what are you thinking about?

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IanZonja
Post  Post subject: Re: hurricanes and global warming  |  Posted: Wed Sep 27, 2017 12:31 pm

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PhDemon wrote:
How? That is quite a sweeping statement, what are you thinking about?


Technology becomes able to predict natural disasters. It could save us to be prepared.


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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: hurricanes and global warming  |  Posted: Wed Sep 27, 2017 2:59 pm
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I think perhaps PhDemon may respond: We can already predict hurricanes, and we already model an increase in their intensity. Despite this, we have not yet managed to stop or minimize them. What technology can help us stop or mitigate them? Are you talking about people evacuating, are you talking about seeding the clouds, are you talking about something else? I think that's the question he is asking you to respond to.

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PhDemon
Post  Post subject: Re: hurricanes and global warming  |  Posted: Wed Sep 27, 2017 3:02 pm

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iNow wrote:
I think perhaps PhDemon may respond: We can already predict hurricanes, and we already model an increase in their intensity. Despite this, we have not yet managed to stop or minimize them. What technology can help us stop or mitigate them? Are you talking about people evacuating, are you talking about seeding the clouds, are you talking about something else? I think that's the question he is asking you to respond to.


Exactly, prediction is one thing but stopping them quite another... Prediction may give a warning early enough for evacuation and save lives but that doesn't mean we are "saved" from them as the property damage and economic effects will still be a huge problem.

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IanZonja
Post  Post subject: Re: hurricanes and global warming  |  Posted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 10:34 am

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PhDemon wrote:
iNow wrote:
I think perhaps PhDemon may respond: We can already predict hurricanes, and we already model an increase in their intensity. Despite this, we have not yet managed to stop or minimize them. What technology can help us stop or mitigate them? Are you talking about people evacuating, are you talking about seeding the clouds, are you talking about something else? I think that's the question he is asking you to respond to.


Exactly, prediction is one thing but stopping them quite another... Prediction may give a warning early enough for evacuation and save lives but that doesn't mean we are "saved" from them as the property damage and economic effects will still be a huge problem.


well, saving lives is the most important.
About damages from the property: well, I can give u an example where the hurricanes are happening mostly in America (I think), and people are building wooden houses. I don't get it to be honest.

A natural disaster is a natural disaster. Any property damage is not important if a life is lost.


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PhDemon
Post  Post subject: Re: hurricanes and global warming  |  Posted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 12:31 pm

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Agreed, but you are still way off the mark for science "saving us from hurricanes" IMO...

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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: hurricanes and global warming  |  Posted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 1:03 pm
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What science CAN do, however, is to influence decisions and behavior. If we update the way we approach infrastructure and regulation, we can use our knowledge to avoid building in flood planes, to use concrete structures instead of wood, to implement systems of levies and water breaks, etc.

The challenge, of course, is that we live for 365 days... or even 600 or 1,000 days... with no issue whatsoever. It's only on one or two random days that attention is needed and the human mind is not very well suited to incorporate such risks into our decisions.

We focus on avoiding the lion and finding a cave to sleep for the night, not on avoiding the flood or the drought likely to begin 15 years in the future.

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