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fay's unKle
Post  Post subject: Progressive working hours reduction ?  |  Posted: Sat Jul 29, 2017 12:17 pm

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What effect will the progressive working hours reduction have, on this part of unemployment, that is created by automation.


Can such measure combat the present levels of unemployment and most importantly, the unavoidably upcoming higher unemployment and wages reductions, as automation advances and matures more. Employee compensations will also be in danger because human work will get less and less necessary and important.


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marnixR
Post  Post subject: Re: Progressive working hours reduction ?  |  Posted: Sat Jul 29, 2017 4:31 pm
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what you appear tobemissing is that while on average the working hours will decrease, what this will mean in reality is that a smaller number of people will be working the standard hours, whilst an increasing number will be unemployed, i.e. working zero hours

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Rory
Post  Post subject: Re: Progressive working hours reduction ?  |  Posted: Sun Jul 30, 2017 5:38 am
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Underemployment is already a reality

Image

60% of the jobs created since the "recovery" have been low wage, part time.

Take away the phunny money easy credit to see: the economy is not "pining for the fjords"

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Lynx_Fox
Post  Post subject: Re: Progressive working hours reduction ?  |  Posted: Tue Aug 01, 2017 12:59 pm

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Rory wrote:
Take away the phunny money easy credit to see: the economy is not "pining for the fjords"


Huh?


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marnixR
Post  Post subject: Re: Progressive working hours reduction ?  |  Posted: Tue Aug 01, 2017 7:46 pm
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Lynx_Fox wrote:
Rory wrote:
Take away the phunny money easy credit to see: the economy is not "pining for the fjords"


Huh?


monty python's dead parrot sketch

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fay's unKle
Post  Post subject: Re: Progressive working hours reduction ?  |  Posted: Wed Aug 02, 2017 7:10 pm

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Working hours ought to have started being reduced decades ago, gradually, 10 minutes one year, 5-10 minutes a year or two later and so on without reducing the salaries and wages. A gradual reduction is in my opinion a much preferable way because initially the 5-10 minutes are not "missing" from the work output, especially in the office. The difference would have been noticeable when the subtracted minutes accumulated but employers would have time to adjust.

As automated machines keep doing more and more in production of goods and services, replacing humans the working hours must gradually keep decreasing. If employment doesn't increase, which some use for an excuse (see some French's claims and excuses) nobody can proove that unemployment will not increase if working hours stay at the levels they were. By the way, for being just, in another sociol-economic matter, pensions, as life expectancy goes up, the age of retirement must go up, also gradually.

THERE IS NOT AS MUCH NEED FOR AS MANY WORKERS OF ALL SORT, EVEN COLLEGE GRADUATES, AS IT USED TO BE AND THIS IN MANY WAYS CREATES SOCIAL STRAINS BECAUSE PEOPLE UNDERSTAND AND GET UNHAPPY. EMPLOYERS CAN'T INCREASE THEIR BUSINESSES'S OUTPUT TO KEEP THE SAME NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES WITH NEW AUTOMATED MACHINES AND CONTINUE WITH FEWER EMPLOYEES AND THE SAME PRODUCTION.

The results are shown with statistics like these: Middle class's income is falling decade after decade and the upper 10% (or 5 or 15 doesn't really matter) decade after decade holds a bigger percentage of the total existing wealth. All the people can see what's coming but some could foresee it long ago.

It could be seen in the early 80s looked through engineering eyes that automation will be advanced soon as much as it didn't for the last many decades. The integrated circuit and electronics in general were about to give new life to the field. (No references will be made to specific machinery, as pneumatic versus programmable electrical with electronics, etc etc etc) So the factory floor was forcibly occupied but also the office, to an extent, which admittedly couldn't foresee, the PC was just born.


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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: Progressive working hours reduction ?  |  Posted: Thu Aug 03, 2017 3:06 am
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Given your feelings on that, what do you recommend as a solution? Do you support a universal basic income, perhaps?

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paleoichneum
Post  Post subject: Re: Progressive working hours reduction ?  |  Posted: Thu Aug 03, 2017 5:12 am
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fay's unKle wrote:

THERE IS NOT AS MUCH NEED FOR AS MANY WORKERS OF ALL SORT, EVEN COLLEGE GRADUATES, AS IT USED TO BE AND THIS IN MANY WAYS CREATES SOCIAL STRAINS BECAUSE PEOPLE UNDERSTAND AND GET UNHAPPY. EMPLOYERS CAN'T INCREASE THEIR BUSINESSES'S OUTPUT TO KEEP THE SAME NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES WITH NEW AUTOMATED MACHINES AND CONTINUE WITH FEWER EMPLOYEES AND THE SAME PRODUCTION.


cite your source....

Also how will people keep houses and food provided if your plan happens?

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Lynx_Fox
Post  Post subject: Re: Progressive working hours reduction ?  |  Posted: Thu Aug 03, 2017 9:56 pm

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iNow wrote:
Given your feelings on that, what do you recommend as a solution? Do you support a universal basic income, perhaps?



I think that's will be the inevitable outcome or impoverished will completely wreck the societies we find ourselves into. We're already seeing the strains--it's absolutely no coincidence that largely uneducated masses backed the populist most backward candidate in the US (and other places) and threaten to tear down the whole system with a futile attempts to bring back their rose colored past, rather than face reality that our entire educational and economic models are going to have to change.


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fay's unKle
Post  Post subject: Re: Progressive working hours reduction ?  |  Posted: Mon Aug 07, 2017 11:24 am

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iNow wrote:
Given your feelings on that, what do you recommend as a solution? Do you support a universal basic income, perhaps?


I 'discovered' it.
If you are further interested, please look here.

https://www.reddit.com/r/BasicIncome/co ... ic_income/


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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: Progressive working hours reduction ?  |  Posted: Mon Aug 07, 2017 1:02 pm
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Your reply does not appear in any way to answer the question I posed. Will you please clarify? Am I correct to assume you do favor implantation of a UBI?

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fay's unKle
Post  Post subject: Re: Progressive working hours reduction ?  |  Posted: Sat Aug 12, 2017 1:47 pm

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It seems to me that by definition UBI means stay home and collect more than a SURVIVAL PACKAGE. Something like that can turn bad for various reasons. For 10 years I am thinking that:
Civilized societies of the 21st century need, at last, to take care, once and for all, the provision of the necessary that satisfy THE VERY BASIC NEEDS THAT COVER NUTRITION, CLOTHING, DWELLING and HEALTH CARE and only these, AUTOMATICALLY FOR ALL BORN PEOPLE AND AT BIRTH, without the person moving a finger, IDEALLY IN DIRECT PRODUCT PROVISION, without currency transactions.

A self-worth (dignity's) survival allowance package with direct provision of goods and services without currency use, may come by supplying AT BIRTH all the people with a 'credit' card (or cards) to use to get every month or week or whatever period is chosen, food and clothing from the appropriate outfits, about 100 bus-fares, 100 kwh in electricity, 1500 gals of water, HEALTHCARE, (you define the basic) etc, etc. So automatically,these will be free for everybody, if some people don't want to use some of them, it's their business. A little more specifically, for food the distribution may be done by asking (mandatorily) supermarkets to have a section for the storage of prepared foods and banks to include in ATMs the acceptance of these cards too for renewal.


I dare to say that this little will change the human being's mentality so much that nothing has change it before, since modern societies emerged. No matter what, about 3/4 of the people have constantly in their minds the bad thought of how they and their family will survive intact in very rainy days. Such social arrangements will calm the human being, so new societal behaviors will emerge, it's a need. Also partially, it will give the opportunity to people to refuse some employers who heavily are taking advantage of employees through need, by waiting and looking for the better.

P.S. In my opinion anything more than this as welcome as it may be must be on top of this AND MUST REQUIRE FOR ALL THE PEOPLE TO 'DO SOMETHING' TO COLLECT IT, which is very difficult to implement.

I am sorry but can write more here, on this bottomless subject.


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Lynx_Fox
Post  Post subject: Re: Progressive working hours reduction ?  |  Posted: Sat Aug 12, 2017 5:38 pm

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"P.S. In my opinion anything more than this as welcome as it may be must be on top of this AND MUST REQUIRE FOR ALL THE PEOPLE TO 'DO SOMETHING' TO COLLECT IT, which is very difficult to implement."

Don't really understand this. Why do you think it's hard? The US welfare systems, for example, mandates some degree of work and time limits for capable adults, the result being extremely low degrees of fraud (regardless of some GOP fake news).

I don't like payments for "not lifting a finger." There's just so many examples of nearly willful poverty in some community (particularly reservations) and a culture of accepting miserable conditions coupled with addiction problems they seem strongly related.


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Falconer360
Post  Post subject: Re: Progressive working hours reduction ?  |  Posted: Mon Aug 14, 2017 11:34 pm
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Lynx_Fox wrote:
I don't like payments for "not lifting a finger." There's just so many examples of nearly willful poverty in some community (particularly reservations) and a culture of accepting miserable conditions coupled with addiction problems they seem strongly related.

I support the UBI, but I agree with you about there being a culture of of willful poverty and accepting miserable conditions in some communities. Since we share the same state I would hazard a guess that we've seen the same ones, and as you mention this seems to be prevalent in reservations. The teachers I've worked with on the reservations have talked with me on this subject (part of why they're keen on trying to interest the children in science).

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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: Progressive working hours reduction ?  |  Posted: Tue Aug 15, 2017 12:10 am
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The economics of UBI are clear. It's the morality of it that's muddy.

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fay's unKle
Post  Post subject: Re: Progressive working hours reduction ?  |  Posted: Sun Aug 20, 2017 3:58 pm

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iNow wrote:
It's the morality


Please expand. It's a very serious word to be left labeled "muddy" as you call it.


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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: Progressive working hours reduction ?  |  Posted: Sun Aug 20, 2017 5:37 pm
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What part is unclear? When we look purely from an economics standpoint, UBI makes sense and ensures a floor. That floor ensures local vendors and creditors don't get pulled down when jobs are scarce. It helps us avoid the self-reinforcing spiral of recessions.

When people standup against it, however, it's usually because they don't want to support people being lazy or establish a moral hazard. You hear comments like "we can't turn the social safety net into a hammock." The math's not on their side, so they must turn instead to emotional arguments rooted in their personal sense of what is and is not fair... what is and is not moral. This is where people disagree and where the primary obstacles are found.

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Lynx_Fox
Post  Post subject: Re: Progressive working hours reduction ?  |  Posted: Mon Aug 21, 2017 2:49 pm

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iNow wrote:
When people standup against it, however, it's usually because they don't want to support people being lazy or establish a moral hazard. You hear comments like "we can't turn the social safety net into a hammock." The math's not on their side, so they must turn instead to emotional arguments rooted in their personal sense of what is and is not fair... what is and is not moral. This is where people disagree and where the primary obstacles are found.


I'm not sure what you mean when you say the numbers don't support it. There's more than a few Native American reservations with more than half in poverty and almost no search for jobs even near relatively prosperous areas--- a large fraction of a culture willing to live without electricity in their homes, running water, trash disposal or even a telephone rather than look for work. It's a deep cynical culture of others owing them something.

And you shouldn't dismiss emotional arguments--they, far more than rational ones, make up most decisions--whether we science types like that or not. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... ations.png


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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: Progressive working hours reduction ?  |  Posted: Tue Aug 22, 2017 1:29 am
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Both fair points. No argument there. My comments are probably better focused on the economy as a whole (or at least within a given population).

After all... The income of the shopkeeper and the plumber and the craftsman and even the banker comes from everyone else having money to spend to pay them for their services and products. Our expenditure is their income.

Now... If everyone else lacks money to spend, then those same shopkeepers and plumbers and craftsmen and bankers start lacking money to spend... our loss of income becomes their loss of income... and the establishments they frequent and services on which they spend their money soon start going out of business. Then the establishments and services they engage go out of business...

It's a self-reinforcing downward spiral. UBI helps because it sets a floor and avoids total collapse. It restrains the poverty we both dislike, and has the added benefit of doing so far more cheaply and efficiently than our current suboptimal (and extremely porous) public welfare structures.

Obviously, there are many places it can fail and do harm. Must be implemented with certain constraints and controls following a well-planned strategy (complete with governance and oversight).

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fay's unKle
Post  Post subject: Re: Progressive working hours reduction ?  |  Posted: Mon Aug 28, 2017 12:59 pm

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iNow wrote:
That floor ensures local vendors and creditors don't get pulled down when jobs are scarce. It helps us avoid the self-reinforcing spiral of recessions.


Very interesting point of view but you assume or know that it's going to be a substantial UBI, I don't.

iNow wrote:
to support people being lazy or establish a moral hazard.


What I dared to think about 10 years ago, when I hadn't heard anything about it (and that's why in my mind it's 'mine') was a self-worth (dignity's) survival allowance package with direct provision of goods and services without currency use, coming by supplying AT BIRTH all the people with a 'credit' card (or cards) to use to get every month or week or whatever period is chosen, BASIC food and clothing from the appropriate outfits, about 100 bus-fares, 100 kwh in electricity, 1500 gals of water, HEALTHCARE, (you define the basic) etc, etc. (and a small piece of land for dwelling) So automatically,these will be free for everybody, if some people don't want to use some of them, it's their business. Specific examples are: for food the distribution may be done by asking (mandatorily) supermarkets to have a section for the storage of prepared food and banks to include in ATMs the acceptance of these cards too for renewal.
I dare to say that this little will change the human being's mentality so much that nothing has change it before, since modern societies emerged. No matter what, about 3/4 of the people have constantly in their minds, the bad thought of how they and their family will survive intact in very rainy days. Such social arrangements will calm the human being, so new societal behaviors will emerge, it's a need. Also partially, it will give the opportunity to people to refuse some employers who heavily are taking advantage of employees through need, by waiting and looking for the better.

THE PROVISION OF THE VERY BASIC DOES NOT PROMOTE LAZINESS.

If the dangers and the inherent time delays for other richer packages are only in my mind, let the devine be a reality.


iNow: ".....emotional arguments rooted...." I add: in their socio-economic interests.... iNow:"....in their personal sense of what is and is not fair... what is and is not moral." I add again : in my opinion fair and moral is what sets the mind of a person to the wellbeing state. A PERSON WHO DOESN'T LOSE ANYTHING WHEN OTHERS GAIN SOMETHING MUST NOT 'LEAVE' FROM THEIR WELLBEING FRAME OF MIND, or they are sick.

No one can throw mud on it or throw it in muddy waters.


Last edited by fay's unKle on Mon Aug 28, 2017 1:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.


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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: Progressive working hours reduction ?  |  Posted: Mon Aug 28, 2017 1:24 pm
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fay's unKle wrote:
Very interesting point of view but you assume or know that it's going to be a substantial UBI, I don't.

I have not stated where I think the floor should be set, but acknowledge a certain minimum is required by my point.

What do you (or anyone reading this) think that minimum should be? How should it be calculated, and should it adjust by location perhaps?

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Falconer360
Post  Post subject: Re: Progressive working hours reduction ?  |  Posted: Mon Aug 28, 2017 5:40 pm
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iNow wrote:
...should it adjust by location perhaps?

Well I believe that in order for it to be successful it would have to vary by location. It's way more expensive to survive in Olympia, WA than it is in Colville WA for instance. So the UBI would have to be based on the area that a person resides in.

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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: Progressive working hours reduction ?  |  Posted: Mon Aug 28, 2017 5:49 pm
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At the same time, keeping it equivalent and consistent regardless of region might drive more people to areas with lower cost of living (so they get more bang from each buck) and improve the economies in those areas. Today, absent UBI, many people lack the financial freedom needed to make such a change / take such a risk.

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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: Progressive working hours reduction ?  |  Posted: Wed Aug 30, 2017 5:32 pm
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A study was just recently published examining the effects of a few different approaches to UBI. There are some challenges to their models, but the discussion here is helpful:

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics ... mic-growth
Quote:
A universal basic income could make the US economy trillions of dollars larger, permanently, according to a new study by the left-leaning Roosevelt Institute.
<...>
Their paper analyzes three different models for a universal basic income:

  1. A full universal basic income, in which every adult gets USD 1,000 a month (USD 12,000 a year)
  2. A partial basic income, in which every adult gets USD 500 a month (USD 6,000 a year)
  3. A child allowance, in which every child gets USD 250 a month (USD 3,000 a year)

They find that enacting any of these policies by growing the federal debt — that is, without raising taxes to pay for it — would substantially grow the economy. The effect fades away within eight years, but GDP is left permanently higher. The big, USD 12,000 per year per adult policy, they find, would permanently grow the economy by 12.56 to 13.10 percent — or about USD 2.5 trillion come 2025. It would also, they find, increase the percentage of Americans with jobs by about 2 percent, and expand the labor force to the tune of 4.5 to 4.7 million people.

They also model the impact of the plan if it's paid for with taxes. That amounts to large-scale income redistribution, which, the authors argue, would stimulate the economy, because lower-income people are likelier to spend their money in the near-term than rich people are. Thus, they find that a full USD 12,000 a year per adult basic income, paid for with progressive income taxes, would grow the economy by about 2.62 percent (USD 515 billion) and expand the labor force by about 1.1 million people.

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Falconer360
Post  Post subject: Re: Progressive working hours reduction ?  |  Posted: Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:34 pm
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iNow wrote:
At the same time, keeping it equivalent and consistent regardless of region might drive more people to areas with lower cost of living (so they get more bang from each buck) and improve the economies in those areas. Today, absent UBI, many people lack the financial freedom needed to make such a change / take such a risk.

Very true. I hadn't thought about that. Following that logic it could lead to a beneficial redistribution of the population, from cities to rural areas. Like the area I live in is very rural with a low cost of living, but also a very small population (my town has around 1000 people). So this could encourage people to move to my town and by doing so pump more money into the local economy and create more job openings. This sort of migration could also end up causing overpopulated cities to become more affordable due to their populations decreasing which frees up housing.

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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: Progressive working hours reduction ?  |  Posted: Fri Sep 01, 2017 12:10 am
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Exactly. As always, the devil is in the details, but the two strongest arguments in favor of UBI from my perspective are the efficiency (one check instead multiple porous hard to navigate welfare programs) and the freedom it affords (to follow ones passions, escape an abusive spouse, leave the city, etc.).

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