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wireless
Post  Post subject: Article 50  |  Posted: Wed Mar 29, 2017 2:23 pm

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At long last, Theresa May has triggered Article 50 which will allow the UK, to leave the tyranny of the European Union. Many challenges await us in the future. I just hope that all politicians and the Civil Service will pull their socks up, and make a good job of it.


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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: Article 50  |  Posted: Wed Mar 29, 2017 5:29 pm
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What do you see as the biggest risks from doing this?

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wireless
Post  Post subject: Re: Article 50  |  Posted: Wed Mar 29, 2017 6:01 pm

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Leaving the European Union ( EU ) is most certainly not a risk to our security, we are after all a member of NATO. The biggest risk of leaving the EU is to the economy of the UK. However, properly managed, with politicians from all parties getting on board we will make a success of leaving the EU. You have to remember, we have been trading with Europe for thousands of years. The UK is not leaving Europe, we are just leaving the EU.


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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: Article 50  |  Posted: Wed Mar 29, 2017 6:13 pm
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Agree that the risks are economic. Getting a bunch of politicians to agree and make smart choices to manage that successfully is also a risk, IMO.

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marnixR
Post  Post subject: Re: Article 50  |  Posted: Wed Mar 29, 2017 6:50 pm
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what struck me most was how depressed Donald Tusk appeared to be in his speech - presumably he takes it as a personal affront that brexit happened on his watch ?

Article 50: 'We already miss you' - Donald Tusk

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Lynx_Fox
Post  Post subject: Re: Article 50  |  Posted: Fri Mar 31, 2017 5:16 am

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wireless wrote:
Leaving the European Union ( EU ) is most certainly not a risk to our security, we are after all a member of NATO. The biggest risk of leaving the EU is to the economy of the UK. However, properly managed, with politicians from all parties getting on board we will make a success of leaving the EU. You have to remember, we have been trading with Europe for thousands of years. The UK is not leaving Europe, we are just leaving the EU.


Dont' be so sure. There's serious discussion about ridding of NATO being helped by the unhelpful rhetoric of Trump. An EU security force would probably replace it and England would be on their own.


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marnixR
Post  Post subject: Re: Article 50  |  Posted: Fri Mar 31, 2017 6:54 am
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Lynx_Fox wrote:
An EU security force would probably replace it and England would be on their own.


apart from the fact that within the current EU, only Britain and France have a sizable army to speak of
so if the EU wanted to build an army of their own, they'd have their work cut out

+ do we really want Germany to rearm in a big way and bring back memories from the bad old days ?

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Lynx_Fox
Post  Post subject: Re: Article 50  |  Posted: Fri Mar 31, 2017 12:16 pm

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marnixR wrote:
Lynx_Fox wrote:
An EU security force would probably replace it and England would be on their own.


apart from the fact that within the current EU, only Britain and France have a sizable army to speak of
so if the EU wanted to build an army of their own, they'd have their work cut out


Not really Turkey is by far the largest force with Greece and Germany having nearly the same size as UK and France. Germany has already agreed to increase in size and announced as much last month. In addition, the US has agreed to sell more tanks to Germany. Under pressure by Trump to pay their own way, other members aside from the US, are being pressured to contribute more.

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+ do we really want Germany to rearm in a big way and bring back memories from the bad old days ?
Whether UK likes it or not, cutting economic ties goes directly towards losing security.


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marnixR
Post  Post subject: Re: Article 50  |  Posted: Fri Mar 31, 2017 6:39 pm
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Lynx_Fox wrote:
Not really Turkey is by far the largest force ...


Turkey is not part of the EU, and i doubt whether it will be in the near future
as for Germany, Trump may have pressurised them to increase their military effort, but the zeitgeist of Germany is strictly against using any military might in an aggressive way

besides, the memory of the german occupation of the Balkans during WWII is still sufficiently fresh that even a german peacekeeping force is out of the question + there might be other areas in europe that feel likewise

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Lynx_Fox
Post  Post subject: Re: Article 50  |  Posted: Sat Apr 01, 2017 11:38 am

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marnixR wrote:
Lynx_Fox wrote:
Not really Turkey is by far the largest force ...


Turkey is not part of the EU, and i doubt whether it will be in the near future
True, had forgotten that. thanks. It is all the more reason for UK concern if NATO morphs into a more EU based entity.


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besides, the memory of the german occupation of the Balkans during WWII is still sufficiently fresh that even a german peacekeeping force is out of the question + there might be other areas in Europe that feel likewise

Disagree. The WWII vets are all but dead and German has had nearly constant troops on Balkan peacekeeping deployments (mostly Kosovo) since the mid 90s.


Details aside, I mostly objected to the broad handwaving above that UK leaving EU wouldn't affect that nation. The economic ties and uniformity have played as much a role in overall European relative peace as NATO.


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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: Article 50  |  Posted: Sat Apr 01, 2017 1:50 pm
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It reminds me people saying Texas should secede from the US. I always think they're oversimplifying things and don't truly understand the underlying dynamics. They have no idea what it would be like without the assistance of the US military, free borders and trade with other states, massive inflows of cash from the federal government for infrastructure, education, Medicaid, and the like. Britain will be similar. Things just got unnecessarily harder for its people.

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marnixR
Post  Post subject: Re: Article 50  |  Posted: Sat Apr 01, 2017 6:03 pm
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Lynx_Fox wrote:
... and German has had nearly constant troops on Balkan peacekeeping deployments (mostly Kosovo) since the mid 90s.


i bet that didn't go down all that well with the Serbians, did it ?

Lynx_Fox wrote:
Details aside, I mostly objected to the broad handwaving above that UK leaving EU wouldn't affect that nation. The economic ties and uniformity have played as much a role in overall European relative peace as NATO.


agree there - see how the issue of Gibraltar is already raising its ugly head
in addition, i wouldn't be surprised if migrants redoubling their efforts to get across to the UK from Calais could be the next flash point

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marnixR
Post  Post subject: Re: Article 50  |  Posted: Sat Apr 01, 2017 7:08 pm
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iNow wrote:
It reminds me people saying Texas should secede from the US.


on the other hand, Britain, unlike Texas, is an island (provided we give Sinn Fein their wish and let Northern Ireland become part of the Republic of Ireland) + it still is a sovereign nation, so not quite comparable to a state that has been part of the union for the best part of two centuries

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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: Article 50  |  Posted: Sat Apr 01, 2017 7:33 pm
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I'm curious about the potential scenario whereby in the middle of all this Scotland just ups and says, "Britain, you bunch of twats. We're not following you over this ignorant cliff" and they decide to secede...

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marnixR
Post  Post subject: Re: Article 50  |  Posted: Sat Apr 01, 2017 8:38 pm
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for the time being it's still not quite clear whether the SNP is capable of winning a 2nd independence referendum

+ if you have your doubts whether the UK can make it on their own, where does that leave an independent Scotland ? as things stand they depend on generous handouts from London to balance the books

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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: Article 50  |  Posted: Sat Apr 01, 2017 9:12 pm
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Indeed. Scotland would obviously need to backfill the loss of British assistance with equivalent help from the EU overall. Will be an interesting few months to see what comes next.

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wireless
Post  Post subject: Re: Article 50  |  Posted: Sun Apr 23, 2017 10:18 am

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I cannot understand the mind set of the Scottish National Party, they want independence from the UK, and then they want to hand over that hard won independence to the European Union. Anyway, never mind article 50, voting is underway in France this very day, the result of the first round of voting could prove to be very interesting.


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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: Article 50  |  Posted: Mon Apr 24, 2017 1:38 am
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It's less about wanting independence from U.K. And more about wanting to remain part of the EU / avoid getting pulled down as a result of the British vote.

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wireless
Post  Post subject: Re: Article 50  |  Posted: Mon Apr 24, 2017 8:31 pm

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Scotland had a referendum on the 18th September 2014 , the question was, " Should Scotland be an independent country?" " Yes " or " No ". Winning independence from the UK and handing that independence over to the EU would not make Scotland independent. Have a look at the link under issues, 3.9, European Union, the whole thing would have been a quagmire. Anyway the result of the referendum was a " No ", and this was years before Brexit.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_ ... ndum,_2014


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