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PhDemon
Post  Post subject: Brexit voting patterns  |  Posted: Mon Feb 06, 2017 3:39 pm

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Interesting article on the breakdown of voting figures on the Brexit referendum.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38762034

It appears that educational attainment had the highest correlation with voting pattern over any other major demographic (with contributions from age and ethnicity accounting for most of the rest of the variation between places).

I found this
Quote:
This powerful link to educational attainment could stem from the lower qualified tending to feel less confident about their prospects and ability to compete for work in a competitive globalised economy with high levels of migration.

On the other hand some commentators see it as primarily reflecting a "culture war" or "values conflict", rather than issues of economics and inequality. Research shows that non-graduates tend to take less liberal positions than graduates on a range of social issues from immigration and multi-culturalism to the death penalty.

particularly interesting. Is there any similar breakdown for the US presidential election?

Any thoughts?

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Last edited by PhDemon on Mon Feb 06, 2017 4:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.


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DrKrettin
Post  Post subject: Re: Brexit voting patterns  |  Posted: Mon Feb 06, 2017 3:58 pm
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PhDemon wrote:
Is there any similar breakdown for the US presidential election?


Someone on this forum linked to a report that of the 53% of women who voted for Trrrrrumpppp, there was a strong representation of women without a college degree. No comment about hair colour.


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Lynx_Fox
Post  Post subject: Re: Brexit voting patterns  |  Posted: Mon Feb 06, 2017 4:18 pm

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DrKrettin wrote:
PhDemon wrote:
Is there any similar breakdown for the US presidential election?


Someone on this forum linked to a report that of the 53% of women who voted for Trrrrrumpppp, there was a strong representation of women without a college degree. No comment about hair colour.


It was a bogus claim. Clinton got 54% of the women's vote as compared to Trump's 42%, a 12 point difference.
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/20 ... education/


The same source found Trump won non-college-educated whites by the largest margins of any modern election.


Last edited by Lynx_Fox on Mon Feb 06, 2017 4:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.


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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: Brexit voting patterns  |  Posted: Mon Feb 06, 2017 4:21 pm
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Trump did best where people were old, white, less educated, and who lived in small rural communities. A useful breakdown here: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wh ... -his-edge/

Here's another that's a bit more visual: http://www.businessinsider.com/exit-pol ... on-2016-11

Oddly, despite the narrative that it was blue-collar working class people who drove Trump to victory, the incomes of his voters was quite high (with a median of ~$70K/year across the Trump voter base).

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iNow

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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: Brexit voting patterns  |  Posted: Mon Feb 06, 2017 4:22 pm
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Lynx_Fox wrote:
It was a bogus claim. Clinton got 54% of the women's vote as compared to Trump's 42%, a 12 point difference.

They're known as "alternative facts." Geesh! Get it right!! You and the lamestream media are always attacking the administration for no good reason. He WON!! If you hate our country so much, why don't you leave!! [/sarcasm]

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iNow

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PhDemon
Post  Post subject: Re: Brexit voting patterns  |  Posted: Mon Feb 06, 2017 4:32 pm

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Quote:
Trump did best where people were old, white, less educated, and who lived in small rural communities.
Interesting, it seems there are a lot of common factors between Trump voters and those who voted to leave the EU... Who says the world is dumbing down? ;)

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M_Gabriela
Post  Post subject: Re: Brexit voting patterns  |  Posted: Mon Feb 06, 2017 6:33 pm
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iNow wrote:
Trump did best where people were old, white, less educated, and who lived in small rural communities.


Considering that voting isn't mandatory in the US, they were smart enough to go voting.

What happens with the 70% of US citizens that didn't vote? How is this election so important for so few people?


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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: Brexit voting patterns  |  Posted: Mon Feb 06, 2017 7:31 pm
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M_Gabriela wrote:
What happens with the 70% of US citizens that didn't vote? How is this election so important for so few people?

Unsure where you're getting your numbers. It's bad, but not that bad. Of the 231M US citizens eligible to vote, about 139M (or 60%) of them did. That still leaves almost 93M (or 40%) that didn't show up, but it's not 70%.

That said, I'm sure many of them right now are thinking they've made a bad mistake, recognize the risk their lack of participation creates for all of us, and hopefully they turn up next time.

We'll see. It's very hard to tell. People choose not to vote for different reasons. This time, a common one seems to have been a dislike for both options and desire not to have to choose a "lesser evil."


Along similar lines, aren't there a lot of people who regret their Brexit vote and are hoping to stay in the EU?

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Pong
Post  Post subject: Re: Brexit voting patterns  |  Posted: Tue Feb 07, 2017 2:00 am
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iNow wrote:
People choose not to vote for different reasons. This time, a common one seems to have been a dislike for both options and desire not to have to choose a "lesser evil."

During the race it seemed every liberal/Democrat felt compelled to append their denunciation of Trump with misgivings about Clinton. Like they needed a sophisticated position despite the no-brainer. If true, then the problem isn't stupidity - it's over-thinking and second-guessing. I believe internet media encourages this, because activity requires there be something to add. We can't simply form a basic position and quit thinking about it. By "we" I mean the demographics most susceptible to thought.

I remember dinnertable politics before the internet. My family always supported a particular party, and there just wasn't much information and intrigue between elections to complicate the matter.

M_Gabriela wrote:
Considering that voting isn't mandatory in the US, they were smart enough to go voting.
Smart like the turkey. That's different than intelligence. A smart turkey does not second-guess itself.



I blamed internet media, and I suggest there also is the solution. Right now computers are doing to us more the opposite of their original purpose. Take for illustration an early mechanical "computer" for calculating artillery settings. Its job was to process a lot of variables like wind speed, shell type, even air pressure, and provide us users with a simple position to set the gun. In this metaphor the gunner is the voter. Now what computers do for voters is rather confuse our basic intentions by outputting variables at us, for us users to puzzle over. It keeps updating the gunner of every little wind change, so the overwhelmed & indecisive gunner fails to fire. I want to turn this situation back around, so that computers process the mess of changing variables and provide a simple output, while we focus on our basic intent.

Some form of app. Like a hybrid "political compass" to lock a voter's basic intent, with an information filter like an ad-filter that processes information into simpler output relevant to the user's political beliefs. I think Google could devise a totally impartial algorithm. At the least it would remind us users where we stand politically, lest we get lost in the details.


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M_Gabriela
Post  Post subject: Re: Brexit voting patterns  |  Posted: Tue Feb 07, 2017 11:54 am
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iNow wrote:
M_Gabriela wrote:
What happens with the 70% of US citizens that didn't vote? How is this election so important for so few people?

Unsure where you're getting your numbers. It's bad, but not that bad. Of the 231M US citizens eligible to vote, about 139M (or 60%) of them did. That still leaves almost 93M (or 40%) that didn't show up, but it's not 70%.

That said, I'm sure many of them right now are thinking they've made a bad mistake, recognize the risk their lack of participation creates for all of us, and hopefully they turn up next time.

We'll see. It's very hard to tell. People choose not to vote for different reasons. This time, a common one seems to have been a dislike for both options and desire not to have to choose a "lesser evil."


Along similar lines, aren't there a lot of people who regret their Brexit vote and are hoping to stay in the EU?

Uf.. i read or heard somewhere it was only 27%. Sorry! Forget what I wrote


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