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marnixR
Post  Post subject: the world of 1984  |  Posted: Fri Jan 20, 2017 9:44 pm
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I don't know how many have read George Orwell's book "1984", but one thing struck me as I see the rapprochement between Trump and Putin : in Orwell's 1984, the world was divided in three major political blocks, who switched their mutual alliances where two were ganging up on the third when the latter became too powerful

isn't this what we're seeing now, where Nixon's China policy, destined to counter the Soviet Union power in the 1970s, is now being overthrown by Trump who wants to be best friends with Putin while at the same time kicking China's shins over their "one China" policy ?

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Falconer360
Post  Post subject: Re: the world of 1984  |  Posted: Fri Jan 20, 2017 11:26 pm
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Valid point Marnix. It's like how the Reagan administration gave Iraq $4 billion to bolster it against Iran. Then later we declared Iraq an enemy. Like how the US supplied money and weapons to Osama bin Laden and the Mujahideen to resist the Soviet Union. Then that bit us in the ass later. Seems to be a trend.

Semi related, I always thought that the other two factions that were mentioned in 1984 might not even exist or at the very least that there wasn't actually a war happening. That the war effort was just a charade to keep people working and in fear. It's been years since I read the book though. I just remember thinking that if the country lied about so much, why should there even be trust that there really was a war?

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janus
Post  Post subject: Re: the world of 1984  |  Posted: Sat Jan 21, 2017 5:25 am

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The other thing I remember from the book was that these changes in alliances would be erased from history. If you switched from allying with faction 1 to faction 2, History was rewritten to remove any mention of there being any alliance with faction 1.


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marnixR
Post  Post subject: Re: the world of 1984  |  Posted: Sat Jan 21, 2017 8:03 am
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janus wrote:
The other thing I remember from the book was that these changes in alliances would be erased from history. If you switched from allying with faction 1 to faction 2, History was rewritten to remove any mention of there being any alliance with faction 1.


I remember a review by Isaac Asimov on 1984 (which he hated, by the way, he thought it was awful SF), where he pointed out that this rewriting of history is absolute nonsense

as an example he mentioned Japan, which was the arch enemy in WWII but a valuable partner against communism in the 1960s : there was no rewriting of history, and none was needed - in his words "As any politician knows, no evidence of any kind is required. It is only necessary to make a statement - any statement - forcefully enough to have an audience believe it. No one will check the facts, and, if they do, they will disbelieve the facts. ... , but the chances of carrying it [the rewriting of history] as far as is described in 1984 seem to me to be nil - not because it is beyond human wickedness, but because it is totally unnecessary."

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Lynx_Fox
Post  Post subject: Re: the world of 1984  |  Posted: Sun Jan 22, 2017 5:37 am

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Yes and no.

Russia essentially has no economic power (some US states and EU nations have more).... the triad would be US, China and Japan

Neither Russia or China really have any military power projection compared to the US or NATO.

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I do get the impression though the Trump actually sees Russia much like the old USSR--and hasn't updated simpleton thinking in decades.


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marnixR
Post  Post subject: Re: the world of 1984  |  Posted: Sun Jan 22, 2017 9:14 am
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Lynx_Fox wrote:
Neither Russia or China really have any military power projection compared to the US or NATO.


maybe so, but it can't be denied that given time China will start extending its economic might by first flexing its muscles as a local power, and who knows aiming for military supremacy once the US is in financial difficulties - the latter may be some time in coming, but give it a few decennia and who knows what happens

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Lynx_Fox
Post  Post subject: Re: the world of 1984  |  Posted: Sun Jan 22, 2017 3:43 pm

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There's isn't a hint of Trump actions that he thinks out beyond his next meal, certainly no international strategic thinking, other than what his reputation might be.....


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marnixR
Post  Post subject: Re: the world of 1984  |  Posted: Fri Jan 27, 2017 11:22 am
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how about this one for a change :

Amazon sells out of 1984 ...

has big brother finally arrived ?

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Northerner
Post  Post subject: Re: the world of 1984  |  Posted: Fri Jan 27, 2017 1:50 pm

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I'm not a fan of Donald Trump and if I was living, in the USA, I would have voted for Clinton.
However, I do believe governments have the right to decide the level of immigration altho' this can be very difficult to enforce.
I regard NATO is vital for the defence of Western Europe (especially the Baltic republics) and North America. I don't feel happy about Trump's attitude here as he comes across as doubting the value of the Alliance.
He does, however, have a point when he states other members, especially in Western Europe, should make a greater financial contribution to this organisation.
On reflection, maybe somewhat off topic here!


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marnixR
Post  Post subject: Re: the world of 1984  |  Posted: Fri Jan 27, 2017 7:04 pm
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yes, I suppose it would have fitted better in the other thread (the one about the 45th president)

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Pong
Post  Post subject: Re: the world of 1984  |  Posted: Mon Feb 06, 2017 4:55 am
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1984 geopolitics fit the "more things change, the more they stay the same." Orwell created a sustainable distopia. It didn't matter who the enemy was, nor the ally - what mattered was that citizens needed to believe in an enemy and an ally, so those must be provided by the state. The state didn't really care about geopolitics. It cared about feeding the worst parts of human nature, to perpetuate its control over citizens.

I dunno if US policy matches. Perpetual war (on something, anything) is true enough. But I'm stuck in the maybe outdated thinking that America never switched off its war machine, simply because that's good business for the "military industrial complex."

No on second thought US policy totally mismatches. An Orwellian superpower wouldn't be at "war" against pushover pariah states, as it has in the last decades.


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marnixR
Post  Post subject: Re: the world of 1984  |  Posted: Mon Feb 06, 2017 8:06 am
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it's true that in the Cold War neither the USA, the USSR or China directly fought each other directly, but instead did so by proxy
as for the ventures into Afghanistan and Iraq, that's just the old adage of the military trying to fight the previous wars all over again, not realising that the game has changed : how do you fight an enemy that doesn't have a regular army ?

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"Someone is WRONG on the internet" (xkcd)


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