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Rory
Post  Post subject: Economics: sources  |  Posted: Mon Jan 09, 2017 7:21 pm
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Published, peer-reviewed "facts" cannot be reproduced by others 70% of the time.

"Just dip this here cell in acid and hazaah! It be a stem cell" (made it through peer review)

Then why does academic publication remain the source of first and last resort?

Why the reluctance to use alternative sources?

If the success rate is 30% then flipping a coin would frankly give a better readout than trusting in "experts".

It takes a certain kind of expert to make a work that cannot be reproduced.

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marnixR
Post  Post subject: Re: Economics: sources  |  Posted: Mon Jan 09, 2017 9:45 pm
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replication of results by an independent party is what separates science from assertion - it's immaterial whether this involves peer review, but the outcome of independent attempts at replication is crucial
cold fusion was potential science until other parties failed to find any grounds for its conclusions

as for economics being a science, I have my doubts

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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: Economics: sources  |  Posted: Mon Jan 09, 2017 9:57 pm
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http://www.economicsonline.co.uk/Compet ... omics.html

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Rory
Post  Post subject: Re: Economics: sources  |  Posted: Mon Jan 09, 2017 11:58 pm
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Absolutely agree with you, marnix.

But, when was the last time you attempted to replicate the findings extracted from a paper, that you are using to underpin an argument, or your view of the world?

7/10 chance that the "fact" you are utilising to fight your corner, cannot be independently verified.

So why are pure ideas or thought experiments still scorned in favour of published statistics?

You can get a long way in the fields of politics and economics just by applying an elementary level of critical thinking.

Yet critics, those who bow down to academia, will denigrate any preference for independent thought, in favour of slavish intellectual submission to the publishing Gods.

Say we have a straight-forward question: does A cause B?

A coin toss will give the correct answer 50% of the time. The Gods of academia will give you a correct answer 30% of the time.

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paleoichneum
Post  Post subject: Re: Economics: sources  |  Posted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 1:00 am
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Red herring and straw man much?

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Lynx_Fox
Post  Post subject: Re: Economics: sources  |  Posted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 6:38 am

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Rory wrote:
A coin toss will give the correct answer 50% of the time. The Gods of academia will give you a correct answer 30% of the time.


More straw man while showing your backside and that you don't know anything about statistics.


Did you read the Nature article about where the 70% came from?

Did you understand and note the key reasons for the lack of repeatability? Such as pressure to publish often tied to degree or grant objective (sometimes combined) which leads to incomplete methodology documentation to copy by other researchers? Simple lack of publication room to go through every methodology nuance and process. Lack of incentive to truly copy anyhow because there's little fame or name recognition (or degree granting) for not coming up with something novel? Lack of deeper blind peer review of statistical methods to make sure they are suitable? And those that have done this for a living also know that failure is sometimes as simple as having 94.9% correlation about some factoid (which in itself is somewhat arbitrary) is considered failure even though it should more correctly be considered strong support.

None of these processes is even a factor or even attempted in most other "sources" of information-- And honestly most of the big ideas of interest to the public aren't about the vast majority of research--it's about big things.


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Rory
Post  Post subject: Re: Economics: sources  |  Posted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 9:18 am
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So what?

You try to reproduce a study, you can't. Are you really going to use that study, or similar studies, to build an argument and - potentially - your entire world view?

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Lynx_Fox
Post  Post subject: Re: Economics: sources  |  Posted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 2:59 pm

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Rory wrote:
So what?

You try to reproduce a study, you can't.


The "so what," for bunches of reasons, often have little to nothing to do with the veracity of the original study's conclusion. Get it yet? Or are you just arguing for argument's sake?


Furthermore, getting back to the OP, sciences' challenges add nothing to the veracity of other methodologies to acquire knowledge--to claim so is illogical.


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