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Rory
Post  Post subject: General trend  |  Posted: Mon Dec 05, 2016 2:35 pm
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A new general trend in the West?

50:50 split between conservative and liberal.

See Brexit and US presidential election as examples.

Perfect set-up for civil war.

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PhDemon
Post  Post subject: Re: General trend  |  Posted: Mon Dec 05, 2016 3:09 pm

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Really? A series of 50/50 peaceful votes mean we are around the corner from armed conflict? In the last few weeks you have posted thread after thread of total bollocks. Stop posting shit.


Can someone just move Rory's nonsense to the trash?

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Rory
Post  Post subject: Re: General trend  |  Posted: Mon Dec 05, 2016 3:20 pm
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There have already been riots against Trump's presidency

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/11/us-election-2016-president-elect-donald-trump-tweets-conflicting/

It isn't outlandish to imagine rival groups of rioters

Nice talking to you, PhDemon

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PhDemon
Post  Post subject: Re: General trend  |  Posted: Mon Dec 05, 2016 3:31 pm

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There is a huge difference between sporadic violence and full on civil war...

I won't be wasting any more time reading your overly generalized, ill-thought out bollocks... go nuts... (if you're not already there)...

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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: General trend  |  Posted: Mon Dec 05, 2016 3:58 pm
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Let's tone it down a bit and see if we can make a productive discussion out of this.

Other than occasional protests and dissatisfaction expressed online through shared memes, what other specific events are happening that lead you (Rory) to assert a civil war is next?

The populace has always disagreed, often passionately. There was only one civil war, though, and that was tied to slavery and humans being held captive, raped, and forced to work for zero pay. Surely, current events haven't yet risen to that level, have they?

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marnixR
Post  Post subject: Re: General trend  |  Posted: Mon Dec 05, 2016 5:37 pm
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i can see where Rory comes from, even if i don't think civil war is around the corner

e.g. even though i wasn't allowed to vote in the brexit referendum, i would have voted "remain" if allowed to do so - hence being told that "the people have spoken" when the split is quite close to 50/50 amounts to a bit of a presumption

would it lead to more than some whingeing and people trying some subterfuge in the courts or in parliament ? somehow i doubt it - most of the time, the majority don't feel THAT strongly about political stuff that they would want to upset the applecart

don't confuse the strength of feeling held by a small minority with the reaction (or lack thereof) of the majority (or larger minority)

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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: General trend  |  Posted: Tue Dec 06, 2016 12:57 am
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Several posts have been thrown in the Trash. Let's please keep it civil, folks.

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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: General trend  |  Posted: Tue Dec 06, 2016 1:00 am
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iNow wrote:
Other than occasional protests and dissatisfaction expressed online through shared memes, what other specific events are happening that lead you (Rory) to assert a civil war is next?

The populace has always disagreed, often passionately. There was only one civil war, though, and that was tied to slavery and humans being held captive, raped, and forced to work for zero pay. Surely, current events haven't yet risen to that level, have they?

Bump

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Rory
Post  Post subject: Re: General trend  |  Posted: Tue Dec 06, 2016 8:06 am
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I concede that PhDemon is a genius, we're in perfect political, economic and social harmony - there's no threat of civil unrest. :roll:

http://www.aus.com/Blog/Article/162/Civil-Unrest-A-New-Threat


MODNOTE: Unnecessary sniping removed

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Rory
Post  Post subject: Re: General trend  |  Posted: Tue Dec 06, 2016 8:42 am
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Courtesy of the LSE

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/aug/05/conditions-that-caused-english-riots-even-worse-now-says-leading-expert

If you're too afraid to commit to a prediction, because you might be proven wrong, then you'd do well to grow a pair.

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PhDemon
Post  Post subject: Re: General trend  |  Posted: Tue Dec 06, 2016 8:57 am

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Obvious [MODNOTE: Derogatory term removed] trolling... You're on ignore.

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marnixR
Post  Post subject: Re: General trend  |  Posted: Tue Dec 06, 2016 11:16 am
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the first blog is trying to over-generalise from 4 examples, 3 of which are in the US, to civil unrest across the world - on the other hand we've seen how countries like Syria, Bahrain and Egypt deal with civil unrest

the Guardian article refers to the 2011 Tottenham riots, which was in no way that I can see is linked with the 50/50 split that in your opinion is likely to promote civil unrest

again, as a general principle, what you state in your OP is not beyond the realms of the possible, but for the time being the facts (which mostly amount to local and limited disturbances) don't bear them out

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Rory
Post  Post subject: Re: General trend  |  Posted: Tue Dec 06, 2016 12:34 pm
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The conditions are right for civil unrest. I'm not predicting it will happen on a specific day, nobody can make that kind of a prediction. But if I were a politician I would be worried about the acute response in the event of Brexit being overturned. There are a lot of angry people out there and voting 'Leave' was their way of communicating that anger. Ignore their voice and they will be heard in a different way.

I remember the morning after the vote to Leave, people in my town were smiling at one another and exchanging congratulations like it was the '97 election.

Edit MR: last part of your post removed - no baiting please :?

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paleoichneum
Post  Post subject: Re: General trend  |  Posted: Tue Dec 06, 2016 1:19 pm
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As I have noted before Brexit was not 50% of the population it was just over 50% of the people that turned out, which equated to about 27%(iirc) of the population. That is far from the generalization that is being presented in the opening post.

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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: General trend  |  Posted: Tue Dec 06, 2016 1:52 pm
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Rory wrote:
I concede that PhDemon is a genius, we're in perfect political, economic and social harmony - there's no threat of civil unrest.

This appears to be a pretty obvious strawman of what people are actually saying. There's a big and rather important difference between civil unrest and civil war. The latter is what you chose to introduce with your OP.

Also, will ask again. Keep it civil. This type of sniping is beneath us all and you can do better. If, however, you cannot, this thread will be locked and potentially more.

You are welcome here, Rory. This sort of behavior, however, is very clearly not.

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Rory
Post  Post subject: Re: General trend  |  Posted: Tue Dec 06, 2016 3:59 pm
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Quote:
iNow wrote:
This appears to be a pretty obvious strawman of what people are actually saying. There's a big and rather important difference between civil unrest and civil war. The latter is what you chose to introduce with your OP
.

In the same way that you might talk about civil war within a political party.

What, you think I expect Brits can fight an actual war without guns or any kind of heavy duty weaponry?

It could, conceivably, escalate into civil conflict - use of violence and rioting between rival groups.

Paleoichneum - I can only comment on the political persuasions of those who chose to vote. In the same way, the mainstream media report that the Clinton: Trump vote was roughly 50:50.

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M_Gabriela
Post  Post subject: Re: General trend  |  Posted: Tue Dec 06, 2016 4:00 pm
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Civil war??? Pfffffffffffffffff... This is offensive... specially to those countries that actually live in constant civil war...
The only thing that happened is that a Reality Show Host won the presidency of the most important country in the world.... That doesn't mean there's going to be a Civil War. It only means that US people have the privilege to vote whoever they want without consequences.. Everything will remain as it was before...at least economically speaking...
The same with the Brexit.

May be US citizens don't realize that they live in the country that control worlwide economy...


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Rory
Post  Post subject: Re: General trend  |  Posted: Tue Dec 06, 2016 4:13 pm
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Quote:
This is offensive... specially to those countries that actually live in constant civil war...


*civil conflict

I wasn't making any reference to those countries, in this context I'm really only interested in the West.

Quote:
The only thing that happened is that a Reality Show Host won the presidency of the most important country in the world.... That doesn't mean there's going to be a Civil War. It only means that US people have the privilege to vote whoever they want without consequences.. Everything will remain as it was before...at least economically speaking...


Okay. :roll:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-37946231

Quote:
About 4,000 demonstrators gathered in the centre of the western city. Some smashed shop and car windows, threw firecrackers and set rubbish alight.

Police declared a riot and made 26 arrests. Oregon voted in favour of Hillary Clinton in Tuesday's election.


Image

Quote:
The same with the Brexit.


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/riots-revolution-ukip-on-steroids-what-activists-say-will-happen-if-brexit-is-blocked-a7396326.html

Quote:
The Brexit heartlands of Britain have reacted with fury to the High Court ruling that Article 50 could not be triggered without Parliamentary approval, with one senior Ukip councillor warning of riot and revolution if the UK is stopped from leaving the EU.

Other grassroots Brexiteers warned of “hell on Earth” and “Ukip on steroids” if “the elite” stopped Brexit from happening.

Stephen Raven, a borough councillor in Boston, the town which recorded the UK’s biggest Brexit vote, went as far as warning that if Brexit were blocked: “Eventually we are going to have a civil riot. That’s my honest opinion. You have got 17 million people [who voted Brexit] who are not going to be very happy at all if the decision gets overturned.

“If Brexit doesn’t go ahead, you are going to get civil uproar. It’s not a word I use lightly, but there is going to be a revolution. There will be a revolution.”


Your opinion is duly noted.

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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: General trend  |  Posted: Tue Dec 06, 2016 5:42 pm
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From the OP:
Rory wrote:
Perfect set-up for civil war.

...but then, later:
Rory wrote:
The conditions are right for civil unrest.

...and once more a different way in a different post:
Rory wrote:
In the same way that you might talk about civil war within a political party.

...and later within that same post:
Rory wrote:
It could, conceivably, escalate into civil conflict.

...then in your latest post we see once more your use of the term:
Rory wrote:
*civil conflict

...but then later in that same post we once again revert back:
Rory wrote:
you are going to get civil uproar. It’s not a word I use lightly, but there is going to be a revolution. There will be a revolution.

Just so I'm clear, which are we talking about now?

Can we please just pick one and stick to it so we can get out of this ridiculous back and forth childish sniping that bores and irritates everyone?

I'm simply trying to understand your point to ensure any response I offer is appropriate to it. If you're unable or unwilling to help, I'll just lock the thread. Trying to give you the benefit of the doubt here and a chance to keep the discussion productive. Need your partnership to achieve that, though.

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paleoichneum
Post  Post subject: Re: General trend  |  Posted: Tue Dec 06, 2016 6:41 pm
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Rory wrote:
Paleoichneum - I can only comment on the political persuasions of those who chose to vote. In the same way, the mainstream media report that the Clinton: Trump vote was roughly 50:50.

Correct, that is all that can be accuratly reported. Thus it is totally false to say 50 of the population voted for the Brexit, when only 27% ACTUALLY voted for it. That makes your opening post false.

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Rory
Post  Post subject: Re: General trend  |  Posted: Tue Dec 06, 2016 6:51 pm
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Okay, here's what I picture. You can decide on the terminology.

Political, economic and social tensions reach a flashpoint - maybe over the government's refusal to listen to the will of the deprived white working class, maybe due to the maltreatment of a racial minority at the hands of police, or maybe due to an economic shock. Rival groups - liberal vs conservative - in major cities, use violence and riot tactics against one another. The situation would last weeks to months until the government get a handle on the situation. Even among those not involved in the violence, citizens would tend to feel strongly one way or another, and this would lead to ill will and an ideologically divided nation. Since the 50:50 conservative:liberal split has been observed in both the US and the UK, it's reasonable to anticipate a similar response in other western nations.

I say this because all Western nations have followed the same economic path post-2008. All nations have nationalised risk and privatised profit, all nations have monetised debt and exported inflation, all nations have driven up asset and commodity prices both domestically and in emerging markets. All nations will have to pay through inflation/devaluation of the currency. All nations are at the mercy of central bankers whose vested interest is to keep the petro-dollar afloat. All nations are struggling to welcome immigrants (a product of the petrodollar project) in a domestic context in which well paid full time skilled permanent careers have been replaced with multiple poorly paid part time low-skilled temporary jobs. And in which the government has cooked the books and shoves the books in the face of the citizenry as if to say "why aren't you a happy compliant subject of our regime?"

Italy is looking quite interesting at the moment.

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Rory
Post  Post subject: Re: General trend  |  Posted: Tue Dec 06, 2016 6:58 pm
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Paleoichneum - 17 million people voted Leave, the UK population is 64 million including 11 million children. So if we exclude children, 17/53 voted leave i.e. one third of the adult population.

Do you think 1/3 is insufficient for civil unrest?

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M_Gabriela
Post  Post subject: Re: General trend  |  Posted: Tue Dec 06, 2016 7:07 pm
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So.... about the people who didn't vote.... does anyone care about their opinion now?
Because if only 27% of the population voted.... then why is the result so relevant? so determining?

If this election was so important, then why was there so little participation?


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marnixR
Post  Post subject: Re: General trend  |  Posted: Tue Dec 06, 2016 8:04 pm
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Rory wrote:
Italy is looking quite interesting at the moment.


let's not confuse the issue here - Italy is a totally different story, since a change of government has on average happened every 12 to 18 months since WWII, so what's happening there now is almost business as usual - it's the financial markets that might get jittery

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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: General trend  |  Posted: Tue Dec 06, 2016 8:54 pm
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Rory wrote:
Political, economic and social tensions reach a flashpoint - maybe over the government's refusal to listen to the will of the deprived white working class

I suppose white folks should be thankful to be so "deprived" relative to their peers:

Image


Rory wrote:
all nations have driven up asset and commodity prices both domestically and in emerging markets.

It's not clear to me how you possibly think this is true. See below:

Image


Rory wrote:
All nations are struggling to welcome immigrants (a product of the petrodollar project) in a domestic context in which well paid full time skilled permanent careers have been replaced with multiple poorly paid part time low-skilled temporary jobs.

The connection you suggest between these job changes and immigrants isn't there. It doesn't hold up. It's an oft repeated myth, but repetition doesn't make it magically true.

Jobs are being automated and even outsourced, often switched from production sector to service sector, but not lost to immigrants. Immigration on net tends to help the economy, and is merely a misguided easy to latch on to scapegoat for the specific problems you cite.

Image

Further, the increase in part-time work you lament so sourly above is partially tied to the growing gig economy. That new approach to the employer/employee relationship is likely to provide both more and better options to workers, as well as greater personal flexibility... a bit like being ones own boss without the usually need for massive capital and regulatory investment upfront to start a business.

Just because it's different or changing doesn't mean it's bad. Details matter.

https://www.wired.com/insights/2013/09/ ... an-worker/
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/13/gig-econ ... -much.html

Rory wrote:
And in which the government has cooked the books...

Is it safe for me to assume you're unable to support this claim with evidence? If not, please provide it. You've been told this before, but conspiracy ideation of this nature is not welcome here. Data and evidence in support of our arguments is.

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Falconer360
Post  Post subject: Re: General trend  |  Posted: Tue Dec 06, 2016 9:21 pm
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Rory wrote:
Okay, here's what I picture. You can decide on the terminology.

Political, economic and social tensions reach a flashpoint - maybe over the government's refusal to listen to the will of the deprived white working class, maybe due to the maltreatment of a racial minority at the hands of police, or maybe due to an economic shock. Rival groups - liberal vs conservative - in major cities, use violence and riot tactics against one another. The situation would last weeks to months until the government get a handle on the situation. Even among those not involved in the violence, citizens would tend to feel strongly one way or another, and this would lead to ill will and an ideologically divided nation. Since the 50:50 conservative:liberal split has been observed in both the US and the UK, it's reasonable to anticipate a similar response in other western nations.

I say this because all Western nations have followed the same economic path post-2008. All nations have nationalised risk and privatised profit, all nations have monetised debt and exported inflation, all nations have driven up asset and commodity prices both domestically and in emerging markets. All nations will have to pay through inflation/devaluation of the currency. All nations are at the mercy of central bankers whose vested interest is to keep the petro-dollar afloat. All nations are struggling to welcome immigrants (a product of the petrodollar project) in a domestic context in which well paid full time skilled permanent careers have been replaced with multiple poorly paid part time low-skilled temporary jobs. And in which the government has cooked the books and shoves the books in the face of the citizenry as if to say "why aren't you a happy compliant subject of our regime?"

Italy is looking quite interesting at the moment.


Inow covered the most important points in the post above mine, but I had a few things I wanted to add.

Yes the US has had some riots over this election, but there have been worse over sporting events.

Yes the US is heavily divided between liberal and conservative right now, but we have been for years. Since we didn't go into a civil war over Obama, when Texas wanted to secede, then I doubt it will happen now. This being that overall too many Americans are disinterested in politics to even care. Or they are just focused on keeping their heads down and keeping the paychecks flowing. I would also argue that social tensions were more tense in the 60's during the equal rights movement. Now we just have a bunch of internet warriors who talk big games.

Yes a lot of jobs have disappeared, but it's mostly due to the advancement of technology. At our current rate of innovation and advancement, eventually society will reach a point where we will have to institute a universal basic income due to automation.

Judging from how you phrase things and your stances, you seem opposed to globalization. Globalization is the future. It's the inevitable outcome of nations working together in cooperation. Maybe I've watched too much Star Trek, but I personally look forward to a day when nationality means nothing.

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Rory
Post  Post subject: Re: General trend  |  Posted: Tue Dec 06, 2016 11:26 pm
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I'll reply to y'all tomorrow. Just then you know I'm not ignoring you (or conceding my position ;) )

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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: General trend  |  Posted: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:19 am
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Hopeful that whatever you share isn't rooted in fake news, or (what I see even more commonly) graphs with cherry-picked boundaries that ignore broader historical trends.

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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: General trend  |  Posted: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:40 am
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Falconer360 wrote:
Judging from how you phrase things and your stances, you seem opposed to globalization. Globalization is the future. It's the inevitable outcome of nations working together in cooperation. Maybe I've watched too much Star Trek, but I personally look forward to a day when nationality means nothing.

Make it so!

Separate, but related: I want to check out the book Trekonomics if I ever take some time off from work and have a decent bit of time to dig in and enjoy it (perhaps even this holiday season).

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the ... eal-world/

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GiantEvil
Post  Post subject: Re: General trend  |  Posted: Wed Dec 07, 2016 4:22 pm
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Image

According to this graph, I have more in common with black folk than just a passion for vicious and brutal flows.

One of my new favorites;

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Rory
Post  Post subject: Re: General trend  |  Posted: Wed Dec 07, 2016 4:41 pm
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Quote:
Gabriela wrote:
So.... about the people who didn't vote.... does anyone care about their opinion now?


Not really, to be honest. If they had a substantive opinion one way or the other, they would have voted.

Quote:
Gabriela wrote:
Because if only 27% of the population voted.... then why is the result so relevant? so determining?

If this election was so important, then why was there so little participation?


Actually, 70% of the electorate (those allowed to vote) actually voted. That’s the highest voter turnout since the 1997 election. More people voted in the Referendum than in the 2010 general election.

Quote:
marnix wrote:
let's not confuse the issue here - Italy is a totally different story, since a change of government has on average happened every 12 to 18 months since WWII, so what's happening there now is almost business as usual - it's the financial markets that might get jittery


Quote:
The Independent wrote:
The political turmoil set off by the Italian referendum result could endanger the euro, a German business group has warned.

Ulrich Grillo, the head of the Federation of German Industries, said that the German industry is worried about the consequences of the referendum, which prompted Premier Minister Matteo Renzi to announce his resignation on Monday.

"The risks of a new political instability for economic development, the financial markets and the currency union are increasing further,” he said.

Douglas McWilliams from the Centre for Economics and Business Researcg (CEBR), a leading economics consultancy, said it estimated the chances of Italy staying in the Euro for the next five years had fallen below 30 per cent following the vote.

"There is no doubt that Italy could stay in the euro if it were prepared to pay the price of virtually zero growth and depressed consumer spending for another five years or so. But that is asking a lot of an increasingly impatient electorate. We think the chances of their sustaining this policy are below 30 per cent," he said.

German's foreign minister also expressed concerns about the result, which prompted Prime Minister Matteo Renzi to resign.

Speaking during a visit to Greece, Frank-Walter Steinmeier said that while the result of the Italian referendum on constitutional reform was "not the end of the world," it was also "not a positive development in the case of the general crisis in Europe."


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/euro-italy-referendum-value-performance-currency-under-threat-warning-a7458616.html

So the head of the Federation of German Industries and the German Foreign Minister are wrong to be concerned about Italy?

Quote:
iNow wrote:
I suppose white folks should be thankful to be so "deprived" relative to their peers


Take a look at Figure 3 of the Joseph Rowntree Foundation paper on poverty and inequality. If I am looking at it correctly, the extent of inequality between white British women is pretty well equal to that between Indian women. That seems extremely odd to me – I am genuinely asking for you to take a look at that Figure.

Of course, ethnic minorities on average fare worse in economic terms than their white counterparts. But there is a great deal of economic inequality within the ethnic white group. Essentially, there is a white underclass and white privileged. The gap between the two is expanding.

https://www.jrf.org.uk/sites/default/fi ... y-full.pdf

Quote:
iNow wrote:
It's not clear to me how you possibly think this is true.


• The Fed lowers interest rates to 0% and embarks upon QE;
• Institutions and investors, holding the “excess” liquidity, look for and find higher yields in emerging and other “opportunity” markets;
• That capital inflow fuels those economies and drives up the demand for resources and commodity inputs;
• Speculation in commodities adds to the demand and prices continue to rise;
• The emerging economies have two choices – they can peg their currencies to the Dollar (like China) to protect their export markets and suffer inflation in their economies, or they can try to neutralize the Dollar inflows via higher interest rates, thus slowing their own expansions and, perhaps, impacting their employment levels.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspecul ... 9106a55472

Quote:
iNow wrote:
The connection you suggest between these job changes and immigrants isn't there. It doesn't hold up. It's an oft repeated myth, but repetition doesn't make it magically true.


I’m not saying it is true – I’m saying the white working class believe it is true, and that is relevant in terms of predicting the likely response to immigration-related policies i.e. Brexit and the US presidency.

Quote:
iNow wrote:
Further, the increase in part-time work you lament so sourly above is partially tied to the growing gig economy. That new approach to the employer/employee relationship is likely to provide both more and better options to workers, as well as greater personal flexibility... a bit like being one’s own boss without the usually need for massive capital and regulatory investment upfront to start a business.

As long as you don’t depend on a stable known income to feed your family or pay the rent then, yes. :roll:

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marnixR
Post  Post subject: Re: General trend  |  Posted: Wed Dec 07, 2016 10:57 pm
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Rory wrote:

Quote:
marnix wrote:
let's not confuse the issue here - Italy is a totally different story, since a change of government has on average happened every 12 to 18 months since WWII, so what's happening there now is almost business as usual - it's the financial markets that might get jittery


Quote:
The Independent wrote:
The political turmoil set off by the Italian referendum result could endanger the euro, a German business group has warned.

Ulrich Grillo, the head of the Federation of German Industries, said that the German industry is worried about the consequences of the referendum, which prompted Premier Minister Matteo Renzi to announce his resignation on Monday.

"The risks of a new political instability for economic development, the financial markets and the currency union are increasing further,” he said.

Douglas McWilliams from the Centre for Economics and Business Researcg (CEBR), a leading economics consultancy, said it estimated the chances of Italy staying in the Euro for the next five years had fallen below 30 per cent following the vote.

"There is no doubt that Italy could stay in the euro if it were prepared to pay the price of virtually zero growth and depressed consumer spending for another five years or so. But that is asking a lot of an increasingly impatient electorate. We think the chances of their sustaining this policy are below 30 per cent," he said.

German's foreign minister also expressed concerns about the result, which prompted Prime Minister Matteo Renzi to resign.

Speaking during a visit to Greece, Frank-Walter Steinmeier said that while the result of the Italian referendum on constitutional reform was "not the end of the world," it was also "not a positive development in the case of the general crisis in Europe."


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/euro-italy-referendum-value-performance-currency-under-threat-warning-a7458616.html

So the head of the Federation of German Industries and the German Foreign Minister are wrong to be concerned about Italy?


of course they're concerned, but for economic reasons, not because they fear a civil unrest /war / strife
what happens in Italy has the potential of destabilising the euro, and that's why Germany is concerned they'll have to carry the can for the rest of Europe

I really think you should try and stay on topic and defend your thesis about a 50/50 split in the electorate and the potential of civil unrest, not drag in other political problems unrelated with what should be the topic of this thread

as I've already said, Italy is a different problem, and all the newspaper articles you quote can't hide the fact that what happens in Italy and the effect it can have for the euro has nothing to do with a 50/50 split of the electorate - in fact, the referendum result was a resounding rejection, not near-parity like in Brexit

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Rory
Post  Post subject: Re: General trend  |  Posted: Thu Dec 08, 2016 4:43 pm
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Quote:
marnix wrote:
as I've already said, Italy is a different problem, and all the newspaper articles you quote can't hide the fact that what happens in Italy and the effect it can have for the euro has nothing to do with a 50/50 split of the electorate - in fact, the referendum result was a resounding rejection, not near-parity like in Brexit


Well, true, the people's will in Italy is pretty homogenous. Still interesting from an econopolitical point of view, though.

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Rory
Post  Post subject: Re: General trend  |  Posted: Thu Dec 08, 2016 5:23 pm
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Quote:
Falconer wrote:
This being that overall too many Americans are disinterested in politics to even care. Or they are just focused on keeping their heads down and keeping the paychecks flowing.


Yes, but paychecks are not flowing. Or they are, but the rate of remuneration is so pathetic as to drive the politically apathetic into political activism.

Quote:
Falconer wrote:
Yes a lot of jobs have disappeared, but it's mostly due to the advancement of technology.


Okay, try telling that to your average citizen trying to provide for a family.

Quote:
Falconer wrote:
Judging from how you phrase things and your stances, you seem opposed to globalization. Globalization is the future. It's the inevitable outcome of nations working together in cooperation. Maybe I've watched too much Star Trek, but I personally look forward to a day when nationality means nothing.


Globalisation (in its current form) generates competition in the wrong direction i.e. a race to the bottom. Faceless MNCs move operations to wherever they can pay no tax, have no accountability to their locality and pay employees as little as possible. They will erode your identity one piece at a time.

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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: General trend  |  Posted: Thu Dec 08, 2016 6:01 pm
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Rory wrote:
Yes, but paychecks are not flowing. Or they are, but the rate of remuneration is so pathetic as to drive the politically apathetic into political activism.

Things wouldn't look quite so bad if people would just stop living in the bubble.

Image


Rory wrote:
Quote:
Falconer wrote:
Yes a lot of jobs have disappeared, but it's mostly due to the advancement of technology.


Okay, try telling that to your average citizen trying to provide for a family.

Just because they don't understand it or are negatively impacted by it doesn't mean it's not true. Exactly what point are you trying to make when saying this? Automation has taken their jobs. They'll need to take steps to find something different. Those jobs aren't coming back, no matter how much you scapegoat immigrants and lament globalization.

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Falconer360
Post  Post subject: Re: General trend  |  Posted: Thu Dec 08, 2016 7:29 pm
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iNow wrote:
Rory wrote:
Quote:
Falconer wrote:
Yes a lot of jobs have disappeared, but it's mostly due to the advancement of technology.


Okay, try telling that to your average citizen trying to provide for a family.

Just because they don't understand it or are negatively impacted by it doesn't mean it's not true. Exactly what point are you trying to make when saying this? Automation has taken their jobs. They'll need to take steps to find something different. Those jobs aren't coming back, no matter how much you scapegoat immigrants and lament globalization.

Further I would add that this isn't anything new. Advances in technology have been taking jobs since humans first gathered together to abandon hunter-gatherer lives in exchange for agricultural life. The arts and sciences can actually be seen as a byproduct of technological advancement even.

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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: General trend  |  Posted: Thu Dec 08, 2016 7:43 pm
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Indeed. It's no different than when blacksmiths were replaced by tire makers or milk men by grocers with refrigeration.

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Rory
Post  Post subject: Re: General trend  |  Posted: Thu Dec 08, 2016 8:02 pm
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I'm not saying that automation isn't costing jobs, it is. My point is that the cause of job losses has little-no bearing on the likelihood of civil conflict, which is the topic of the thread.

Frankly those citizens worried about immigration ought to be more concerned about their jobs being shipped abroad where people are willing to be paid far less and to work under far worse conditions. Borders don't matter any longer - job opportunities can just jump straight overseas in the arms of corporate giants.

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Falconer360
Post  Post subject: Re: General trend  |  Posted: Thu Dec 08, 2016 10:33 pm
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Rory wrote:
Frankly those citizens worried about immigration ought to be more concerned about their jobs being shipped abroad where people are willing to be paid far less and to work under far worse conditions. Borders don't matter any longer - job opportunities can just jump straight overseas in the arms of corporate giants.

Which is the big irony of all the anti-immigration people voting for Trump who has his products made overseas.

Anyways I still find your argument for a big civil unrest as per
Rory wrote:
Okay, here's what I picture. You can decide on the terminology.

Political, economic and social tensions reach a flashpoint - maybe over the government's refusal to listen to the will of the deprived white working class, maybe due to the maltreatment of a racial minority at the hands of police, or maybe due to an economic shock. Rival groups - liberal vs conservative - in major cities, use violence and riot tactics against one another. The situation would last weeks to months until the government get a handle on the situation. Even among those not involved in the violence, citizens would tend to feel strongly one way or another, and this would lead to ill will and an ideologically divided nation. Since the 50:50 conservative:liberal split has been observed in both the US and the UK, it's reasonable to anticipate a similar response in other western nations


to be highly unlikely. Already tensions here in the US have mellowed out, with no riots in about three weeks and protests diminishing to none over that time. Most liberals have now switched to trying to take congress back in 2018, and just ridiculing Trump online. Furthermore the riots that we did have in the wake of the election were tiny in comparison with most of the ones in the last 50 years.

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Rory
Post  Post subject: Re: General trend  |  Posted: Fri Dec 09, 2016 7:52 am
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Well, yes, I was predicting civil unrest in the future not the past :P

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