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Rory
Post  Post subject: Re: Inflation lookout thread  |  Posted: Sun Oct 30, 2016 7:39 am
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Well, yeah. But it's like the world population having an academic debate about the human impact on global warming 30 minutes before the world ignites.

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Rory
Post  Post subject: Re: Inflation lookout thread  |  Posted: Sun Oct 30, 2016 4:58 pm
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iNoww

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Rory
Post  Post subject: Re: Inflation lookout thread  |  Posted: Wed Dec 14, 2016 7:11 pm
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Omg the Fed has raised interet rates 0.25%

Let's watch what happens

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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: Inflation lookout thread  |  Posted: Wed Dec 14, 2016 10:00 pm
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It's already been priced into the market. Everyone knew this was coming. Result will also depend on what (if any) fiscal measures are enacted in parallel.

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Lynx_Fox
Post  Post subject: Re: Inflation lookout thread  |  Posted: Thu Dec 15, 2016 5:35 am

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Actually I don't think so. P/E isn't really high but has been climbing despite the Fed threatening to raise rates over the past six months. I think there's probably be a significant correction in the next couple weeks unless earner reports continue to impress--but we'll see.


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Rory
Post  Post subject: Re: Inflation lookout thread  |  Posted: Thu Dec 15, 2016 11:05 am
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Quote:
iNow wrote:
It's already been priced into the market. Everyone knew this was coming. Result will also depend on what (if any) fiscal measures are enacted in parallel.


I didn’t see it coming – the Fed has been promising and promising a rate rise, but when you don’t see a rise after the third promise, you sort of de-value the promises made. At least, I do.

Still, 0.25% is pathetic by historical standards:

Image

I wonder how they’re going to play this long – how are they going to keep the economy from choking on debt servicing?

Quote:
Lynx_Fox wrote:
Actually I don't think so. P/E isn't really high but has been climbing despite the Fed threatening to raise rates over the past six months. I think there's probably be a significant correction in the next couple weeks unless earner reports continue to impress--but we'll see.


PE is > 27, stocks are “partying like it’s 1929” (Shiller)

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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: Inflation lookout thread  |  Posted: Thu Dec 15, 2016 7:32 pm
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@Lynx - Fair enough. Probably depends on where specifically one focuses. The big question is what happens with home and auto purchasing, as well as large capital investments (heavy equipment, infrastructure, etc.) during the next several months. Those will almost certainly drop.

As for the actual thread topic, we in the US are seeing an ever-so-slight uptick in both headline and core inflation measures, but still extremely low by historical measures. I'm not sure what the numbers look like right now in UK, but the US (who triggered this thread bump due to the Fed decision yesterday) looks good so far.

http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dsho ... nd-shelter
Quote:
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the November Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year nonseasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 1.69%, up fractionally from 1.64% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 2.11%, essentially unchanged from the previous month's 2.14%.


Since 2000:
Image

Since 1958:
Image

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Lynx_Fox
Post  Post subject: Re: Inflation lookout thread  |  Posted: Thu Dec 15, 2016 7:41 pm

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And as the correction comes: Trump will tweet some ill-advised 3AM comment about how the whole system is corrupt and he'll put in some fix so good we'll hardly believe it to reduce rates.


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M_Gabriela
Post  Post subject: Re: Inflation lookout thread  |  Posted: Thu Dec 15, 2016 8:06 pm
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I couldn't help posting this:

Image

And in 2016 we have reached 36-38% ...

So I didn't understand. Is a small inflation ocurring in the US?


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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: Inflation lookout thread  |  Posted: Thu Dec 15, 2016 9:15 pm
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Lol. Ouch. There's a little inflation in the US, but almost none as my link describes. As you can see in the OP, however, Rory mistakenly believes folks in UK and US are experiencing what you are in Argentina. It lacks perspective or basis in reality.

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M_Gabriela
Post  Post subject: Re: Inflation lookout thread  |  Posted: Thu Dec 15, 2016 9:24 pm
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Haha. If you are not used to it then it is understandable that this little increment becomes an important news


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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: Inflation lookout thread  |  Posted: Fri Dec 16, 2016 12:33 pm
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Brazil just similarly enacted one of the harshest austerity measures ever seen. Wonder what they experience next in terms of inflation and economic shrinkage.

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Rory
Post  Post subject: Re: Inflation lookout thread  |  Posted: Fri Dec 16, 2016 2:23 pm
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No, actually, so far we've exported inflation. Now it's coming home to roost. A point that iNow has turned into a strawman. Well done, iNow.

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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: Inflation lookout thread  |  Posted: Fri Dec 16, 2016 2:48 pm
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I want to understand your point. I'm struggling, however, with your meaning and need your help.

Please elaborate on what you mean about "exporting inflation" and the mechanisms by which you see it now as "coming home to roost."

With that, perhaps we can have a productive dialog and find areas of agreement.

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M_Gabriela
Post  Post subject: Re: Inflation lookout thread  |  Posted: Fri Dec 16, 2016 2:59 pm
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What does that mean? export inflation... Make other countries have inflation on purpose?


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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: Inflation lookout thread  |  Posted: Fri Dec 30, 2016 3:17 am
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Rory
Post  Post subject: Re: Inflation lookout thread  |  Posted: Fri Dec 30, 2016 10:31 am
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I wonder if gold's recent rally is a prophecy?

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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: Inflation lookout thread  |  Posted: Fri Dec 30, 2016 4:09 pm
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No. Prophecies are for gullible people.

Instead, gold purchases tend to be a signal of investor uncertainty in current political trends (such as Brexit, Trump, etc). Gold is for people looking for insurance against market drops. It's also a more attractive purchase when low demand for it decreases its price (as is happening now, contrary to your underlying premise).

Either way, I encourage you (once again) to be more cautious and avoid getting bogged down in daily/weekly volatility. You're looking at trends. You're commenting on trends. You're trying to use trends to predict the future and you believe we're in a rally, so please consider a more appropriate timescale when doing so.

Why do I mention this? See below:

Image

Image

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Rory
Post  Post subject: Re: Inflation lookout thread  |  Posted: Fri Dec 30, 2016 10:26 pm
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Gold is a hedge against inflation.

'Rally' is a termed I jacked from the BBC: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38463037

You're right, I probably shouldn't listen to the mainstream news, they're $hit

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Lynx_Fox
Post  Post subject: Re: Inflation lookout thread  |  Posted: Fri Dec 30, 2016 11:04 pm

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Everything so far shown suggest inflation is still not a concern and will be easily manageable.


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Rory
Post  Post subject: Re: Inflation lookout thread  |  Posted: Fri Dec 30, 2016 11:42 pm
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Sure, we can quadruple the monetary base w/o any significant impact on currency value.

I don't know why we didn't think of it before :roll:

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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: Inflation lookout thread  |  Posted: Sat Dec 31, 2016 12:03 am
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Nobody here is talking about monetary expansion except you.

Either way, the risk associated with large increases in the money supply is high inflation. Inflation is still quite low, below historical standards actually, so that risk hasn't been realized.

The chicken little act isn't new, but is definitely old and repeatedly wrong.

People with your worldview have been screaming about runaway inflation since at least 2007. When shown that actual inflation numbers are very low... numbers demonstrating your model of the economy to be false and badly flawed... you instead say the numbers can't be trusted, even though the numbers line up perfectly with textbook economics describing what happens in a recession. When asked what numbers we should use instead, you cannot answer. You instead waffle about exporting inflation, and when asked what that even means you once again cannot answer... choosing instead to start waffling about other things like media bias or liberals.

I have treated you with respect and kindness and supported my positions fully. Whether intentionally or not, you've failed to reciprocate. You need to realize that we can disagree on how best to respond to the facts, but not on the facts themselves.

At some point, you will need to acknowledge your mistakes, update your thinking, and realize that doing so is not an insult to your identity nor an affront to your self image.

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shlunka
Post  Post subject: Re: Inflation lookout thread  |  Posted: Sat Jan 07, 2017 6:09 pm

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Don't worry. Every morning I take a ruler to a dollar bill to keep a watchful eye over my countrymen.

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Rory
Post  Post subject: Re: Inflation lookout thread  |  Posted: Sat Jan 07, 2017 7:55 pm
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@iNow - when I post about the exportation of inflation, you don't respond. I'll re-post the link here, please look to the bullet point summary for an outline of the process to which I make reference.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2011/03/08/fed-exports-inflation-stokes-revolutions/

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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: Inflation lookout thread  |  Posted: Sat Jan 07, 2017 8:42 pm
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So, your basic concern is that the Fed is printing too many dollars. When they do this, you believe it makes the reserves other countries hold using the US dollar as their currency worth less than they otherwise would be worth. You see this as "exporting inflation." Got it.

The obvious flaw in this thinking is that as the value of the dollar drops US exports become cheaper... they become more attractive to foreign buyers... and the end result is those foreign currencies consequently become stronger, not weaker.

That's the opposite of inflation, Rory. Thats the opposite of "exporting" it. That's the opposite of the problem you profess to be so deeply concerned with.

Further, you're here lamenting how the Fed is engaging in the process of "printing" money and QE that decreased significantly almost 4 years ago as the economy improved... a process which they terminated completely very soon after that almost 3 years ago now. None of the risks you cite... none of the dangers you're so anxious about... none of the evils and perils you focus so heavily upon came to fruition.

Seriously, rory. It's time to update your thinking on this. I'm willing to listen to a well made argument that's rooted in facts and tied to evidence. I'm willing to change my mind if you can present a position that doesn't collapse entirely after just a moments consideration... a position that's based on more than just fear and misunderstandings and that accounts for actual circumstances and current conditions.

As of now, I've yet to see it. It's time to put up or shut up. You're lashing out at processes and circumstances that ceased years ago. The predictions of those you trust and those you repeat here in these threads have been badly and consistently wrong.

Once more...At some point, you will need to acknowledge your mistakes, update your thinking, and realize that doing so is not an insult to your identity nor an affront to your self image.

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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: Inflation lookout thread  |  Posted: Mon Jan 09, 2017 4:13 pm
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https://www.scribd.com/document/3327143 ... lation-PDF
Quote:
Inflation as measured by the PCE has averaged 1.4 percent on a trailing four-quarter basis since the recovery began in 2009:Q3—0.6 percentage points below the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) long-run objective of 2 percent. By comparison, over the 10-year period preceding the financial crisis, PCE inflation averaged 2.0 percent (see figure 1). Meanwhile, inflation excluding food and energy (core PCE) averaged 1.5 percent and 1.8 percent over the same periods, respectively.

Not only has PCE inflation been below 2 percent for most of the recent past, it has also persistently come in below many economists’ forecasts. For example, in 2013:Q1, the median forecast from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) was 2.0 percent for 2014:Q4 and 2015:Q4, whereas actual inflation turned out to be 1.2 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively. Similarly, the median forecast for core inflation was 1.9 percent for both 2014 and 2015, while actual core inflation was 1.6 percent and 1.4 percent, respectively.

(...)

Inflation has been running at low levels for most of the past five years and has failed to move higher as expected. This assesses the likelihood that inflation will increase to at least 2 percent over the next three years by using six forecasting models that research has shown to be accurate for forecasting inflation. For PCE inflation, five of the six models suggest that there is a less than 50 percent probability that inflation will be greater than or equal to 2 percent in the next three years. For core PCE inflation, all six models currently estimate a less than 50 percent probability that inflation will be greater than or equal to 2 percent.

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Rory
Post  Post subject: Re: Inflation lookout thread  |  Posted: Mon Jan 09, 2017 6:01 pm
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I ate 10 candy bars yesterday but I don't have diabetes today.

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Rory
Post  Post subject: Re: Inflation lookout thread  |  Posted: Mon Jan 09, 2017 6:05 pm
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I wonder if the hyperinflation in Venezuala is related to the fact that Venezuala's currency is pegged to the USD?

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M_Gabriela
Post  Post subject: Re: Inflation lookout thread  |  Posted: Mon Jan 09, 2017 6:45 pm
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Inflation depends on many things...the devaluation of the currency is a consequence.
Every currency is related to dollar because is the more stable one.
Our dollar was AR 9 in December 2015 and now is AR 16 and rising...


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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: Inflation lookout thread  |  Posted: Mon Jan 09, 2017 7:06 pm
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Rory wrote:
I ate 10 candy bars yesterday but I don't have diabetes today.

What your response ignores is the fact that, despite this ingestion of candy bars, the risk of your future diabetes is also close to nil... if we're to carry your own logic and analogy forward, that is. We target 2% inflation. For at least the last 7 years and now projected for at least the next 3, we're likely to remain below that target (absent some major change in fiscal policy or crisis in China, for example). In short, we want inflation to be higher and our policies are preventing that from happening.

Finally, it's ridiculous that you've been a member of this site for so long and yet you still somehow think a YT video is a valid rebuttal to published and peer-reviewed information. YT can be used to supplement a point, or provide context, but not to make one.

I do want to give you (once again) the benefit of the doubt, though. Let's assume there's some nugget of wisdom in there I'm ignorant of, or some insight I've failed to account for in my posts above. Assume for a moment also that I have neither the time nor the patience to to sit through an entire YT video, let alone two of them.

Please summarize the core arguments of your videos and how they debunk anything I've shared or said in this thread. I'd be curious also to know the source since you seem to care so much about sources, but that's secondary to my request for a summary of the core points.

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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: Inflation lookout thread  |  Posted: Mon Jan 09, 2017 7:10 pm
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M_Gabriela wrote:
Inflation depends on many things...the devaluation of the currency is a consequence.
Every currency is related to dollar because is the more stable one.
Our dollar was AR 9 in December 2015 and now is AR 16 and rising...

Part of this is because the dollar is strengthening (in parallel, of course, with the inflation your country is experiencing). In case it's not obvious, this provides even more evidence regarding the flawed nature of Rory's position.

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Rory
Post  Post subject: Re: Inflation lookout thread  |  Posted: Mon Jan 09, 2017 7:11 pm
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Because you never post YouTube videos in threads?

If you're not willing to take the time to watch them, then I'm not willing to take the time to engage with you.

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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: Inflation lookout thread  |  Posted: Mon Jan 09, 2017 7:14 pm
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Rory wrote:
If you're not willing to take the time to watch them, then I'm not willing to take the time to engage with you.

Thread closed.

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