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Rory
Post  Post subject: State of the global economy  |  Posted: Fri Sep 02, 2016 2:35 pm
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37256532

The lady doth protest too much

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scoobydoo1
Post  Post subject: Re: State of the global economy  |  Posted: Fri Sep 02, 2016 4:18 pm
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Did you give us the wrong link?

The article focuses on the UK economy and not Global. Also, an economist writes a piece on 'ecomony' based on the number of cranes appearing in a city instead of maths or hard data? Am I the only one seeing a problem here? :shock:


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Rory
Post  Post subject: Re: State of the global economy  |  Posted: Fri Sep 02, 2016 5:01 pm
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The link is as intended - I considered naming it the 'UK economy' thread but global economics is more interesting. As such, in the future, I am hoping to add further posts relating to other nations.

Yes, exactly - some spur of the moment comment like "I saw a lot of cranes on my daily commute" now passes for news at the BBC.

Blatantly there is an attempt to create the illusion of a booming economy. #notbuyingit

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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: State of the global economy  |  Posted: Fri Sep 02, 2016 5:51 pm
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An "illusion" based on decreased unemployment, increased incomes, lower poverty, higher investment, higher growth, increased mobility, higher home purchases, and a plethora other data.

Maybe your article was poorly formulated and ill-advised, but it hardly negates all of the other countless many positive economic trends we're experiencing.


Edit: homeownership rates in UK may not be following rates in US, but rest stands

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Rory
Post  Post subject: Re: State of the global economy  |  Posted: Fri Sep 02, 2016 6:05 pm
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I'll post a comprehensive reply to this tomorrow when I have access to my laptop.

For tonight I'll have to leave you on your own planet.

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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: State of the global economy  |  Posted: Fri Sep 02, 2016 6:52 pm
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I will wait with bated breath to be told why facts no longer matter and why we should focus instead on narrow framing and narrative. :roll:

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Rory
Post  Post subject: Re: State of the global economy  |  Posted: Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:17 pm
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IOU some facts :)

Will deliver

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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: State of the global economy  |  Posted: Sat Sep 03, 2016 12:49 am
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Sounds good. In the meantime, let me set some foundation for you to build upon (or attempt to demolish):

ImageImage
ImageImageImageImageImageImage


Also to be clear, my position is not that things are perfect. My position is not that there are no gaps or flaws to be addressed or things to continue improving. I'm not arguing that there is nobody struggling or that utopia has been achieved or that there isn't an extreme asymmetry between the uber wealthy and the rest needing to be addressed. I'm simply pushing back on your consistent narrative that the sky is falling, all things economic are apocalyptic, and that government programs do little more than make living worse.

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Rory
Post  Post subject: Re: State of the global economy  |  Posted: Sat Sep 03, 2016 4:24 pm
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Unemployment is very low – US and UK

Image

Image

However

Actual hours worked have not recovered

Image

(if you trust three independent surveys rather than government statistics)

The jobs ‘miracle’ consists of replacing well paid full time secure work with low paid part time insecure work

Quote:
But let's not get too caught up in celebrations. We need to look beyond the sheer quantity of jobs being created and into the quality of those jobs – something neither presidential candidate seems very interested in talking about… more workers are in stuck in part-time jobs because their hours were cut back or they're unable to find full-time positions. The number of workers in this category shot up to 8.5 million in September – an increase of 581,000 from last month. This month's figure is nearly double what it was in September 2007, the eve of the recession.


https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/oct/05/jobs-numbers-quantity-quality

GDP appears to be increasing – conveniently, a narrative governments need to sell in order to boost consumer confidence and to maintain its international creditworthiness – but whistleblowers are worried about data manipulation:

Quote:
Stuart Onyeche, who worked for the Office for National Statistics (ONS) until 2014, has described how a UK public expenditure figure was reduced by £2 billion so that it didn’t look like spending had risen when it was meant to be falling.


Onyeche’s report can be found on the government website at:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... r-evidence > Bean review responses > individuals

Quote:
Gold Plunges After "Someone" Suddenly Decides To Dump Over $2.3 Billion Notional In 10 Minutes


Image

Who might be interested in propping up the dollar?

The CPI appears low. Okay. Government is telling us it is low. When I visit the store, I don’t feel like a unit of currency goes a long way.

Quote:
The upshot of all their monkeying with the numbers is that the official rate of inflation may be two to four times lower than the actual rate (which is rather convenient if you’re a government bureaucrat trying to hold down interest costs and Social Security payments).
The problem is that inflation only shows up, as one person put it, in the things we actually buy. If your main costs are food, energy, education, and healthcare (ring any bells?), then inflation is a great deal higher than 2%. Other items are actually falling in price. It comes down to the mix of items in the calculations and whether you buy into the concepts of substitution (if beef gets too expensive we buy hamburger rather than steak) and “hedonics,” which says that prices of products drop over time as quality and manufacturing efficiency improve, so the calculation of inflation should take this into account.

Which means you can have official inflation at a low level (or even falling for certain items), while the amount you actually spend out of your very real pocket is rising! And thus the debate.

Having refreshed us on the basic techniques of CPI massage, Gary turns to food and energy, which the BLS includes in “headline CPI” but omits from “core CPI.” He points out that while headline CPI jumped an unexpected 0.7% in February, core CPI rose only 0.2%. That is, food and energy price increases accounted for more than 70% of the rise. “Not good for the economy,” he notes.

And of course, this is all bad news for unwary investors, since

Those who believe that inflation is only 2%, when it may be 5-8%, may be making investment decisions that are almost guaranteed to erode the purchasing power of their money over time. This is especially true with low-yielding investments such as CDs, Treasuries, etc.


If the REAL economy were as great as the GOVERNMENT STATISTIC economy then there would be no massive support for Trump, no Brexit or increase in racism.

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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: State of the global economy  |  Posted: Sat Sep 03, 2016 6:24 pm
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I see a lot of hand waving and suggestions of conspiracy or insinuations that government data cannot be trusted, but little more (and most certainly no actual evidence of wrongdoing or subterfuge).

Also, you might want to validate this:

Rory wrote:
The jobs ‘miracle’ consists of replacing well paid full time secure work with low paid part time insecure work.


Given this:
ImageImage

Your position does seem more reasonable if we instead view government data, however you've just told us not to trust that so I ignored it above. If curious, though:

Image


Regardless, AFAIC, nothing you've shared supports the sky is falling, economic apocalypse, dystopian hellscape you have been consistently painting for the last few months with your posts.

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Rory
Post  Post subject: Re: State of the global economy  |  Posted: Sat Sep 03, 2016 7:55 pm
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I've given you data from reputable sources and an admission from a former ONS insider. If that isn't good enough, nothing will be.

Let's revisit the thread in three months, shake on it?

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Rory
Post  Post subject: Re: State of the global economy  |  Posted: Sat Sep 03, 2016 8:21 pm
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Deutsche Bank is on the edge and there is talk of "financial apocalypse" - BBC's words, not mine

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36723034

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Rory
Post  Post subject: Re: State of the global economy  |  Posted: Sat Sep 03, 2016 8:32 pm
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Hanjin Shipping has gone bankrupt - represents 8% of all trans-Pacific trade volume for the US market

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/sep/02/hanjin-shipping-bankruptcy-causes-turmoil-in-global-sea-freight

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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: State of the global economy  |  Posted: Sat Sep 03, 2016 10:26 pm
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The market is volatile. So? Anecdote $ \displaystyle \ne$ evidence.

Companies and corporations, banks and startups and otherwise all come into and go out of business every single day.

The market switches regularly from bull to bear. The trend is consistently up, though.

Yes, there are major ups and rapid painful downs that cause real heartache to millions, but those downs are temporary and the trend is clear.

Image


Don't you realize "the end is nigh" people have been wrong every time, yet that's where you're choosing to hitch your wagon?

Image

See also: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of ... tic_events

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Rory
Post  Post subject: Re: State of the global economy  |  Posted: Sat Sep 03, 2016 10:46 pm
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You do know the stock market is being fed by, well, the Fed... right?

"Deutsche bank appears to be the most important net contributor to systemic risks in the global banking system" IMF

(it's not like I'm saying the corner shop is closing)

"The biggest problem is that Deutsche Bank has too much leverage"

Hmm. What else has too much leverage?

Even the Hindenberg worked well until the last few seconds

http://money.cnn.com/2016/07/27/news/companies/deutsche-bank-profit-slump/

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Rory
Post  Post subject: Re: State of the global economy  |  Posted: Sat Sep 03, 2016 10:47 pm
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Yes, I'm bloody well hitching it :) and you should buy some bottled water

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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: State of the global economy  |  Posted: Sun Sep 04, 2016 4:00 am
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Rory wrote:
Hanjin Shipping has gone bankrupt - represents 8% of all trans-Pacific trade volume for the US market

Seriously, this? Are you familiar with the term grasping at straws and the concept of nonsequitur?

https://www.wired.com/2016/09/hanjin-ba ... ng-economy

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Rory
Post  Post subject: Re: State of the global economy  |  Posted: Sun Sep 04, 2016 7:59 am
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Seriously, you're ignoring

Quote:
Deutsche Bank appears to be the most important net contributor to systemic risks in the global banking system
IMF

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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: State of the global economy  |  Posted: Sun Sep 04, 2016 4:15 pm
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I'm not ignoring it. I'm waiting for it to play out and recognizing that the effects if it does fail will be much more EMEA focused than global. You're the one who decided to make this thread global in context.

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Rory
Post  Post subject: Re: State of the global economy  |  Posted: Sun Sep 04, 2016 11:24 pm
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Image

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image

This is what a recovery looks like

Image

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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: State of the global economy  |  Posted: Mon Sep 05, 2016 1:26 am
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Humble request: Would be nice if you could please start using THUMB tags instead of IMG tags. I've been having to manually edit every post you make so the gigantic images don't blow up the screens of readers (especially those viewing on mobile).

Also, maybe you can summarize for us your point, or what specifically you're here to discuss that would be interesting to other active members? Right now, it feels a bit as if you are focused more on ranting and pushing forth innuendo and suggestion, which I frankly don't find terribly appealing (nor convincing).

Regardless your response, seems appropriate at this point to repeat myself from above:

iNow wrote:
to be clear, my position is not that things are perfect. My position is not that there are no gaps or flaws to be addressed or things to continue improving. I'm not arguing that there is nobody struggling or that utopia has been achieved or that there isn't an extreme asymmetry between the uber wealthy and the rest needing to be addressed. I'm simply pushing back on your consistent narrative that the sky is falling, all things economic are apocalyptic, and that government programs do little more than make living worse.

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Rory
Post  Post subject: Re: State of the global economy  |  Posted: Mon Sep 05, 2016 8:27 am
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If you can't see the inherent interest in discussing the state of the global economy then I'm not going to labour pointing it out to you

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Rory
Post  Post subject: Re: State of the global economy  |  Posted: Mon Sep 05, 2016 11:00 am
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Image

Image

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Rory
Post  Post subject: Re: State of the global economy  |  Posted: Mon Sep 05, 2016 7:53 pm
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Image

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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: State of the global economy  |  Posted: Mon Sep 05, 2016 8:13 pm
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Care to look at the decadal trend?

Image

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Rory
Post  Post subject: Re: State of the global economy  |  Posted: Mon Sep 05, 2016 8:28 pm
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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: State of the global economy  |  Posted: Mon Sep 05, 2016 8:46 pm
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So, no then?

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Rory
Post  Post subject: Re: State of the global economy  |  Posted: Mon Sep 05, 2016 10:01 pm
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What do you mean?

Do you mean that since PMI has been positive for the past 7 years that that indicates recovery?

Well, it might... but is not sufficient to prove recovery on its own

It also would not be inconsistent with a bubble economy

And what, then, does a return to negative territory indicate?

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Rory
Post  Post subject: Re: State of the global economy  |  Posted: Sat Sep 10, 2016 7:22 pm
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Image

Oopsies

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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: State of the global economy  |  Posted: Sat Sep 10, 2016 10:43 pm
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and your point is??

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Rory
Post  Post subject: Re: State of the global economy  |  Posted: Sat Sep 10, 2016 11:11 pm
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Just highlighting data that challenge the 'positive' foundation above.

The one in which you data-dropped 8 graphs... am I not allowed to use the same tactics?

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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: State of the global economy  |  Posted: Sat Sep 10, 2016 11:43 pm
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And what specifically do shipping volumes over the previous 2 years out of the lone city of Shanghai challenge about the global economic metrics I earlier shared, IYO?

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Rory
Post  Post subject: Re: State of the global economy  |  Posted: Sun Sep 11, 2016 8:42 am
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Image

National stat for you

One point would be: if Western economies are enjoying real economic growth, and employment is high, and disposable income is high - why has the (implied) demand for Chinese goods tumbled?

Inflation-adjusted disposable income looks okay if you set it into the context of a half-century timeline. Not convinced that it has increased, for most people, since 2007. If it had, there wouldn't be 1 in 7 Americans dependent upon food stamps:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-03/food-stamps-still-feed-one-in-seven-americans-despite-recovery

Image

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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: State of the global economy  |  Posted: Sun Sep 11, 2016 3:37 pm
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Rory wrote:
if Western economies are enjoying real economic growth, and employment is high, and disposable income is high - why has the (implied) demand for Chinese goods tumbled?

The information you shared is not sufficient evidence supporting the claim that global demand for Chinese goods is down (the image below is). That was my point. You hadn't sufficiently supported your claim.

... but yes. There are risks to watch out for. When watching, however, it's important not to do so in a vacuum and to keep things in context of other activity (as opposed to seeing only what we want).

I'm simply not seeing the same calamitous data everywhere that you are (maybe the recent Brexit decision is giving you a more negative local view than the one we're seeing globally??).

Of course things are not perfect. There are risks to be mitigated. Nothing is certain... Sure. There are people claiming impending collapse every single day. Encourage you not to be one of those people who predicted 8 of the last 3 recessions. ;)


Image

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Rory
Post  Post subject: Re: State of the global economy  |  Posted: Sun Sep 11, 2016 4:36 pm
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What's the harm in making a prediction that turns out to be incorrect?

That's the bedrock of Science.

I'm not of afraid of being wrong (at least, not on this topic).

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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: State of the global economy  |  Posted: Sun Sep 11, 2016 5:00 pm
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Rory wrote:
What's the harm in making a prediction that turns out to be incorrect?

That's the bedrock of Science.

I'm not of afraid of being wrong (at least, not on this topic).

You lose credibility and people start to question whether you have any idea what you're talking about and ask whether you're worth paying any attention to at all (at least, on this topic).

Let's be honest and not dress this up as something it's not. You're not putting forth a hypothesis and laying out a rigorous testing methodology. You're making specific assertions and bordering on fear mongering.

Finally, the "bedrock of science" is not making consistently wrong claims, but is instead about looking at data to inform our views while changing our minds when data suggests our views are wrong or being too far generalized. It's about asking a question and following the data wherever it leads, not about forming a conclusion and cherry picking information that appears to reinforce it.

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Rory
Post  Post subject: Re: State of the global economy  |  Posted: Sun Sep 11, 2016 5:47 pm
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Well, I'm not overly worried about losing the good opinion of Forum members within the Economics section. I'm not an economist whose reputation and livelihood depend upon never saying anything that sounds like a prediction.

I would be worried about losing your friendship, but that's another matter altogether.

My hypothesis: the current, previously untested, economic policy being implemented across US and European economies* will lead (in the short-nedium term) to an economic collapse similar to - or worse than - the financial crisis of 2007-08.

Factors that will intensify the fallout: the disparity between wealthy and poor is likely to feed social unrest and rioting; the desire of China to replace the US dollar with yuan as global reserve currency and the desire of both China and Russia for greater world dominance. There are obvious parallels with current events in the South China Sea.

The only way to test this hypothesis is 'wait and see'. Economics, clearly, isn't an exact Science and neither should you level arguments against inquisitiveness, analysis and prediction, on the basis that the prediction might be fallacious. It is not possible to prove causality in Economics by controlling all of the variables as would be possible in the natural sciences.

*record high debt (national and private), stimulus/money printing, fiat currencies, zero interest rates/negative interest rates, central banks buying back most of the Treasuries, central banks meddling in the stock market, stock market inflation, easy money culture, opaque derivatives, asset bubbles

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Rory
Post  Post subject: Re: State of the global economy  |  Posted: Mon Sep 12, 2016 2:51 am
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This out today - rail season tickets cost 10% of net pay

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-37166033

May be headline, not core, but it's still coming out of their pockets

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Rory
Post  Post subject: Re: State of the global economy  |  Posted: Mon Sep 12, 2016 8:58 am
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British Chambers of Commerce revise down growth forecast for the UK - and expect us to narrowly avoid a recession.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37334933

Okay. Good luck to them!

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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: State of the global economy  |  Posted: Mon Sep 12, 2016 4:05 pm
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Once again, context matters, as does history. Let's look at inflation:

http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dsho ... -inflation
Quote:
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) released this morning puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 0.84%. It is substantially below the 3.79% average since the end of the Second World War and its 10-year moving average, now at 1.80%.
(snip)
Our long-term inflation charts reach back to 1872 by adding Warren and Pearson's price index for the earlier years. The spliced series is available at Yale Professor (and Nobel laureate) Robert Shiller's website. This look further back into the past dramatically illustrates the extreme oscillation between inflation and deflation during the first 70 years of our timeline.


(this one's worth clicking to enlarge)

Image

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Rory
Post  Post subject: Re: State of the global economy  |  Posted: Mon Sep 12, 2016 6:41 pm
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The government has major vested interests in making CPI appear low. Would you unquestioningly trust safety data published by big pharma regarding their own product?

The way CPI is calculated is opaque and the government, conveniently, are able to drop products at their own discretion.

The proof is in the pudding. If inflation is so low, why are 1 in 7 Americans dependent upon food stamps?

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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: State of the global economy  |  Posted: Mon Sep 12, 2016 9:45 pm
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Rory wrote:
The government has major vested interests in making CPI appear low.

I have less than zero patience for BS conspiracy theories like this. Either you have data / evidence showing that the numbers are being cooked or you don't. If you don't, then you need to stop.

Also... The number of americans on food stamps is completely nonsequitur and has no bearing on the calculated rate of core inflation.

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Rory
Post  Post subject: Re: State of the global economy  |  Posted: Mon Sep 12, 2016 9:58 pm
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I have no firsthand proof that GSK suppress data but it still happens - you can't prove a negative

Don't you think it's a little naive to accept government data at face value?

If inflation were high, would you expect food stamp usage to be high or low?

If the economy were healthy, would you expect food stamp usage to be high or low?

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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: State of the global economy  |  Posted: Tue Sep 13, 2016 12:26 am
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Do you or don't you have evidence that the inflation numbers are faked?

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Rory
Post  Post subject: Re: State of the global economy  |  Posted: Tue Sep 13, 2016 8:56 am
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I don't - neither do I have evidence that my local used car dealer massages the facts and figures. Still wouldn't trust his claims at face value.

Why didn't you answer my questions?

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Rory
Post  Post subject: Re: State of the global economy  |  Posted: Tue Sep 13, 2016 9:33 am
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ONS claims inflation is at 0.6%

"The rise in food prices was partly offset by cheaper prices for hotel rooms"

Practically never use hotel rooms - what a relevant statistic!

Good job, ONS!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37347669

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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: State of the global economy  |  Posted: Wed Sep 14, 2016 2:04 am
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Rory wrote:
I don't - neither do I have evidence that my local used car dealer massages the facts and figures. Still wouldn't trust his claims at face value.

Okay. We're done, then. Thread locked.

Recommend you start a blog if you dislike my decision.

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