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astromark2014
Post  Post subject: Plates in motion;  |  Posted: Sat Jun 04, 2016 7:33 am
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Location: On a hill near a park. The Whanganui National Park, New Zealand.

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I have a interest in the geology of Earth's crustal plates. There motion and the forces that drive them.
Living on the edge so to speak.. It matters.
After a busy evening at the Observatory we came down the hill to the nearest bar, for refreshments and debriefing.. :)
One of the older fellows has a theory he wants us to consider.. and I stepped up and said.. The facts do not point at this clearly. It is;

That the Moon at perigee coinciding ( almost ) with a full or new moon..could trigger Earthquakes, or even volcanic activity.

It is not unreasoned that if under stress a fault could be ruptured by any extra stress. but, but.. BUT.
This time Mars is just a few weeks past opposition while Saturn lines up. We actually do have some of the big guns, Gravity sources sort of lined up.

So Have I been keeping a eye on USGS and our GEO-NET No significant event has yet been noted.. tick, tick, tick...
I invite opinion.. any which way ..

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Robittybob1
Post  Post subject: Re: Plates in motion;  |  Posted: Sat Jun 04, 2016 9:01 am

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I looked this up some years ago and then I found a website that showed there was about a 2% higher chance of having an earthquake around the time of the full moon. Then years later I tried to find the same again and I couldn't.


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astromark2014
Post  Post subject: Re: Plates in motion;  |  Posted: Sat Jun 04, 2016 9:45 am
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:lol: Yet we expect to find a trend., but do not.
Every 14 days the Moon passes opposition and then a alignment. and still the incidence of serious tremor does not peak..
and then the question of where would we look for trigger quakes.. Chile, or Turkey maybe China, Indonesia..
That the Earth is pulled some metres this way and that.. no, I can not prove a connection. I will wait another 72 hours.. All bets are off...:)

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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: Plates in motion;  |  Posted: Sat Jun 04, 2016 11:41 am
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Leaving the affects and location of the moon and mars aside for a moment, how likely are tidal forces to interact with tectonic shifts in the first place? How sensitive is that relationship in idealized conditions?

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Pong
Post  Post subject: Re: Plates in motion;  |  Posted: Sat Jun 04, 2016 12:56 pm
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I guess the idea is if it's imminent, then the tiniest force will make it go, say, now instead of six hours from now. So it's a trigger, not a cause.

Seems reasonable deformation by Earth tide would be the trigger.


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astromark2014
Post  Post subject: Re: Plates in motion;  |  Posted: Sun Jun 05, 2016 5:16 am
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~ Yes. Not ever suggesting a cause but a trigger for unlocking faults under stress. It sounds reasonable. Yet no such correlation is found.

As of at this time we can not predict a Earthquake; We can narrow a prediction down to a 'likely hood' if the case being studied is near to detectable fault structures of historic motions previous..

Just as the USA has The Yellowstone Caldera so to does NZ have the Akatainia Caldera. Historically a very active region of violent volcanic events.
That a recent study has revealed a more massive lava lake than previously predicted.. slightly concerning for the near to it towns..

A little knowledge of these issues reveals a number of zones of imminent concern around the pacific Ring.. interesting but not currently active..
I like to temper this with a reminder. That humanity occupies and builds a infrastructure of roadways and plumbing does not prohibit nature re arranging her coat.

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Pong
Post  Post subject: Re: Plates in motion;  |  Posted: Sun Jun 05, 2016 10:08 am
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Ring of Fire quakes are becoming more predictable than previously thought possible. The reason is a sort of regular ratcheting phenomenon called "Episodic Tremor and Slip" (ETS), that was first discovered in Cascadia and found also in Chile, Japan, Mexico, AND I think New Zealand as well Astromark. How it works: We're using GPS to measure plate movement, where one is under compression. E.g. Vancouver Island is compressed by the subducting Pacific. The plates are kinda stuck together, so as the Pacific spreads east, Vancouver Island scrunches east a bit too. But every 14 months, in this case almost like clockwork, GPS on the Island measures a reverse in direction. The boundary has become temporarily unstuck and Cascadia slips back somewhat, "relaxing" you could say, until its spent most of the compression. And then it gets stuck again. Stupid plate.

And so again poor stuck Cascadia must be slowly pushed and compressed by the relentless Pacific, until it reaches some unbearable threshold predictably 14 months later, when it slips again. And so on. It's predicable enough seismologists mark "ETS week" on their calendars long before the event. Note the tremor from these events is fluid and not like true earthquake shocks where bedrock is actually snapping down there.

I said clockwork because there is a greater "ratchet" driven by the lesser one. That slip requires an unknown number of 14-month squeezes to reach its threshold, but again it comes at fairly regular intervals... ~450 years IIRC. We can be pretty confident "the big one" will begin with a predictable ETS, and overrun it. That's over 100 years from now probably. Then I guess everyone will have "ETS week" on their calendars, prepare for the worst, and breathe a sigh of relief when a normal ETS passes.


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astromark2014
Post  Post subject: Re: Plates in motion;  |  Posted: Tue Sep 20, 2016 8:43 am
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This is a subject of some passionate interest for me, and as stated before a paranoia exists in my head...

This subject of tidal motions has been studied and measured. That central Australia rises and falls with tidal motion and is well documented by geologists.. That I have tried to find other trigger mechanisms, but have failed in spectacular style.. :) .

~ Earth's Moon just a short period after being full and in good alignment as a lunar eclipse was evident. Did pass through Perigee.
Yet as I study over the GNS sites no such trigger could be found.. There was NOT a greater number of activities.
Things as would be considered as normal, and were... So I put to bed my theory, thorium, or paranoid guess... ;)

I could even point my finger at the discovery / National Geographic.. as alarmist; I noted that in a Facebook feed ( I want for this stuff )
They have twice this week published regarding; 'Lava lake rising' and 'concerning movements noted' .. NO ! New Zealand is NOT on the brink of pandemonium..
Nor is the central North Island about to be ripped asunder by tempestuous seismic or volcanic events.. Whew ! ..
That's it is all going to happen.. just not yet.

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