FAQ
It is currently Sat Apr 29, 2017 11:20 am


Author Message
wegs
Post  Post subject: Simulating prehistoric movements with accuracy  |  Posted: Tue May 24, 2016 3:20 am
User avatar

Joined: Mon Jul 22, 2013 3:48 am
Posts: 77

Offline
Fascinating. Although I find it curious how they can be accurate with the method.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 144852.htm


Top
iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: Simulating prehistoric movements with accuracy  |  Posted: Tue May 24, 2016 3:38 am
User avatar
Original Member
Original Member

Joined: Thu Aug 04, 2011 11:40 pm
Posts: 5500
Location: Austin, Texas

Offline
I wonder if this is another case of a "just so" model where they ignore all if the failed assumptions. Cool work, though. Curious (if this is, in fact, valid) how else their model could be applied or what other benefits it might offer.



MODNOTE: Minor issue and no concerns, but choosing to move this thread from Earth Sciences instead to Anthroplogy & Archaeology. Let me know if anyone disagrees with this decision. I will leave a redirect.

_________________
iNow

"[Time] is one of those concepts that is profoundly resistant to a simple definition." ~C. Sagan


Top
wegs
Post  Post subject: Re: Simulating prehistoric movements with accuracy  |  Posted: Wed May 25, 2016 2:35 am
User avatar

Joined: Mon Jul 22, 2013 3:48 am
Posts: 77

Offline
iNow wrote:
I wonder if this is another case of a "just so" model where they ignore all if the failed assumptions. Cool work, though. Curious (if this is, in fact, valid) how else their model could be applied or what other benefits it might offer.



MODNOTE: Minor issue and no concerns, but choosing to move this thread from Earth Sciences instead to Anthroplogy & Archaeology. Let me know if anyone disagrees with this decision. I will leave a redirect.

That's a very good point! Archaeology isn't an exact ''science'' so to speak, which is why I'm a little taken aback by the word ''accurate'' in describing this. Who decides its accuracy? I imagine there is a consensus of opinion, but still. lol

Having said that, it's a very cool break through to learning about the past!


Top
Pong
Post  Post subject: Re: Simulating prehistoric movements with accuracy  |  Posted: Sun May 29, 2016 10:40 am
Original Member
Original Member

Joined: Sat May 28, 2016 2:53 am
Posts: 219

Offline
This can't be right.

They simulated "The early period of human migration into the British Isles ... based upon current topographical satellite data".

But what's so important about the satellites besides the output of gee-whiz animated eye-candy? And how did they get satellite data from 12,000 years ago? They've completely ignored the changing coastline! Suggests entry point data from megalithic, yet sim begins after Christ (?!). People apparently don't move along coastlines or follow rivers or valleys, rather spread smoothly across mountain ranges. :?

Inaccurate to say the least.


Top
wegs
Post  Post subject: Re: Simulating prehistoric movements with accuracy  |  Posted: Sat Jun 04, 2016 4:42 am
User avatar

Joined: Mon Jul 22, 2013 3:48 am
Posts: 77

Offline
Pong wrote:
This can't be right.

They simulated "The early period of human migration into the British Isles ... based upon current topographical satellite data".

But what's so important about the satellites besides the output of gee-whiz animated eye-candy? And how did they get satellite data from 12,000 years ago? They've completely ignored the changing coastline! Suggests entry point data from megalithic, yet sim begins after Christ (?!). People apparently don't move along coastlines or follow rivers or valleys, rather spread smoothly across mountain ranges. :?

Inaccurate to say the least.

I was looking for a like feature, but there isn't one, yet. lol Somewhat agree, just seems pie in the sky, but it's weird how these things get published as Gospel truth.


Top
iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: Simulating prehistoric movements with accuracy  |  Posted: Sat Jun 04, 2016 11:37 am
User avatar
Original Member
Original Member

Joined: Thu Aug 04, 2011 11:40 pm
Posts: 5500
Location: Austin, Texas

Offline
Sometimes popular media exaggerate claims, too. The better they bait clicks the more revenue they create, so even some of the most mundane of scientific articles frequently become bedazzled lipsticked pigs.

_________________
iNow

"[Time] is one of those concepts that is profoundly resistant to a simple definition." ~C. Sagan


Top
Lynx_Fox
Post  Post subject: Re: Simulating prehistoric movements with accuracy  |  Posted: Sat Jun 04, 2016 2:07 pm

Joined: Wed Dec 30, 2015 5:17 am
Posts: 198
Location: US Pacific NorthWest

Offline
Given the 1km x 1km model, using satellite as the primary measures for habitability from elevation, surface water availability and flatness isn't a bad choice. The popscience summery garbled the span of the study; it goes back to 10000 years (see study at http://journals.plos.org/plosone/articl ... ne.0154641) , by which point sea levels would be pretty stable as well as coast lines within with resolution of the model.

The actual study conclusions is mostly centered on the demonstrated usefulness of using a modified diffusion model rather than declarations of strong accuracy. It's still impressive work with broad application to humans (as well as probably other species).


Top
Pong
Post  Post subject: Re: Simulating prehistoric movements with accuracy  |  Posted: Sun Jun 05, 2016 12:39 am
Original Member
Original Member

Joined: Sat May 28, 2016 2:53 am
Posts: 219

Offline
True enough. I was taken in by the flashy demo.

Still I doubt this model will stand well to reality check. E.g. what happens when you feed it another species like ducks, elk, or fiddler crabs? I'm pretty sure fiddler crabs don't spread themselves across an ice field.


Top
iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: Simulating prehistoric movements with accuracy  |  Posted: Sun Jun 05, 2016 12:50 am
User avatar
Original Member
Original Member

Joined: Thu Aug 04, 2011 11:40 pm
Posts: 5500
Location: Austin, Texas

Offline
Did the modelers intend their algorithm to be panspecies?

_________________
iNow

"[Time] is one of those concepts that is profoundly resistant to a simple definition." ~C. Sagan


Top
Pong
Post  Post subject: Re: Simulating prehistoric movements with accuracy  |  Posted: Sun Jun 05, 2016 3:00 am
Original Member
Original Member

Joined: Sat May 28, 2016 2:53 am
Posts: 219

Offline
No, but the variables should apply as well for some other species, I imagine. Besides the huge correlation between presence of humans in some area, with presence of some other plant or animal species. Remember we once imagined a land "corridor" through the Arctic populated by herds and prehistoric humans chasing them.


Top
Lynx_Fox
Post  Post subject: Re: Simulating prehistoric movements with accuracy  |  Posted: Fri Jun 10, 2016 12:16 am

Joined: Wed Dec 30, 2015 5:17 am
Posts: 198
Location: US Pacific NorthWest

Offline
Pong wrote:
True enough. I was taken in by the flashy demo.

Still I doubt this model will stand well to reality check. E.g. what happens when you feed it another species like ducks, elk, or fiddler crabs? I'm pretty sure fiddler crabs don't spread themselves across an ice field.



Of course not with specific parameters.

The whole point though is humans prefer and move along ecological niches that can be parameterized into certain types of terrain. Considering it appears to work for one of the planets more diverse species (humans), it's quite likely it would be even more effective as a tool to model population expansion and movements among less adaptive species be it elk or even fiddler crabs.


Top
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Print view

Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
Jump to:   
cron

Delete all board cookies | The team | All times are UTC


This free forum is proudly hosted by ProphpBB | phpBB software | Report Abuse | Privacy