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GiantEvil
Post  Post subject: Crazy weather in U.S.  |  Posted: Mon Dec 28, 2015 3:12 pm
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There appears to be extreme and unusual weather going on in parts of the U.S. Over this holiday period. Is it really that unusual relative to a historic record? And if so is it a clear sign of anthropogenic climate change?

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marnixR
Post  Post subject: Re: Crazy weather in U.S.  |  Posted: Mon Dec 28, 2015 4:53 pm
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The one thing I've noticed about the weather in the UK the last few years is the persistence of certain weather patterns over long periods of time - e.g. This winter started wet, mild and windy, and I fully expect it to last for at least a few more weeks if not months

And that's exactly the problem we're having now: one heavy downpour is merely an inconvenience, a month of downpours following one after another becomes more than a mere nuisance, first leading to localised flooding, and then to more extensive and widespread flooding

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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: Crazy weather in U.S.  |  Posted: Mon Dec 28, 2015 5:35 pm
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We can't really ever say that any individual storm or weather event is due to climate change, but climate change certainly makes events like the more likely. Other factors (like El NiƱo) play a big role, too.

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marnixR
Post  Post subject: Re: Crazy weather in U.S.  |  Posted: Mon Dec 28, 2015 7:39 pm
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i wasn't really commenting on individual events, it's more a pattern that is starting to emerge over the last few years

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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: Crazy weather in U.S.  |  Posted: Mon Dec 28, 2015 7:57 pm
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In my laziness, I didn't use the quote feature, so I can see how it wasn't clear that my reply was to GEs OP.

To that end, there was also a question about how common weather like we've seen in the US these past few weeks has been historically. This author seems to have covered that inquiry fairly well:

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/ ... s_eve.html

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Rory
Post  Post subject: Re: Crazy weather in U.S.  |  Posted: Mon Dec 28, 2015 9:34 pm
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My neck of the woods has been affected since Boxing day by flooding. Thankfully my town has been spared excepting a local supermarket where residents were filmed taking a swim. But neighbouring regions in Lancashire, Greater Manchester, Cumbria and West Yorkshire are still feeling the effects of unprecedented flooding. This has led to calls from the Environment Agency for a complete rethink on the current approach to flood defences. It seems like every winter the UK army is deployed to evacuate stranded residents and, with whole towns now going down, the problem is becoming an economic as well as an environmental headache. Even the centre of Manchester experienced flooding as the river Irwell overflowed.

I would also be interested to know if the recent extreme weatger patterns in Australia (bush fires, tornadoes avd shelf clouds) can be attributed to climate change. I know those are fairly ordinary occurences for that part of the world, but it seems they may habe become both more frequent and more intense?

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Macgyver1968
Post  Post subject: Re: Crazy weather in U.S.  |  Posted: Mon Dec 28, 2015 11:03 pm
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Here in Dallas, we had 9 tornadoes (one of them was an EF4), 70 degree temperatures, AND snow in the last two days.

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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: Crazy weather in U.S.  |  Posted: Mon Dec 28, 2015 11:46 pm
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I'm in Austin and it wasn't that bad here, though the state did have some serious Mother Nature crazy visited upon it as a whole.

Image

(^Click to embiggen)

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Rory
Post  Post subject: Re: Crazy weather in U.S.  |  Posted: Tue Dec 29, 2015 8:05 am
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We may have to give up on seasons and meteorological predictions at some point

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marnixR
Post  Post subject: Re: Crazy weather in U.S.  |  Posted: Tue Dec 29, 2015 1:47 pm
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Rory wrote:
My neck of the woods has been affected since Boxing day by flooding. Thankfully my town has been spared excepting a local supermarket where residents were filmed taking a swim. But neighbouring regions in Lancashire, Greater Manchester, Cumbria and West Yorkshire are still feeling the effects of unprecedented flooding. This has led to calls from the Environment Agency for a complete rethink on the current approach to flood defences. It seems like every winter the UK army is deployed to evacuate stranded residents and, with whole towns now going down, the problem is becoming an economic as well as an environmental headache. Even the centre of Manchester experienced flooding as the river Irwell overflowed.

I would also be interested to know if the recent extreme weatger patterns in Australia (bush fires, tornadoes avd shelf clouds) can be attributed to climate change. I know those are fairly ordinary occurences for that part of the world, but it seems they may habe become both more frequent and more intense?


I spoke to my sister in Adelaide about a week ago - at the time it was 44 deg.C, which is rather high for December

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Rory
Post  Post subject: Re: Crazy weather in U.S.  |  Posted: Tue Dec 29, 2015 2:57 pm
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Probably a combination of El Nino and climate change - at least, that's what the papers say

Edit: And what iNow said overleaf. Sorry iNow ;)

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Lynx_Fox
Post  Post subject: Re: Crazy weather in U.S.  |  Posted: Wed Dec 30, 2015 2:07 pm

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Rory wrote:
Probably a combination of El Nino and climate change - at least, that's what the papers say



Well yes of course. Virtually EVERY record is set by some natural weather variation superimposed over climate averages and trend--every "crazy" weather event we see will qualify as climate change + some natural weather variation.


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Rory
Post  Post subject: Re: Crazy weather in U.S.  |  Posted: Thu Dec 31, 2015 12:44 am
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Thanks for your contribution.

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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: Crazy weather in U.S.  |  Posted: Thu Dec 31, 2015 3:19 am
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A good article on the central thread topic: http://www.businessinsider.com/a-scary- ... le-2015-12

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Moontanman
Post  Post subject: Re: Crazy weather in U.S.  |  Posted: Thu Dec 31, 2015 3:55 am
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GiantEvil wrote:
There appears to be extreme and unusual weather going on in parts of the U.S. Over this holiday period. Is it really that unusual relative to a historic record? And if so is it a clear sign of anthropogenic climate change?



Where I live we are still using the AC, it is actually hot during the day! We don't get much really cold weather but we do get frosts and even the rare snow fall but so far this year it hasn't even frosted, by now we would have usually had several frosts and a couple hard freezes. I still have my cacti outside...


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Snafuperman
Post  Post subject: Re: Crazy weather in U.S.  |  Posted: Thu Jan 07, 2016 10:04 pm

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We are getting a lot of rain this winter, and we need it. I know that El Nino is bad for some regions but here in the desert SW, we need some water put back into the Colorado River and its lakes.


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