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marnixR
Post  Post subject: global warming has stalled ?  |  Posted: Tue Jan 06, 2015 7:18 am
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that's clearly not the case if you look at the following graph, which doesn't just indicate that 2014 is the hottest on record, it also clearly shows how the last 15 years have been above the linear average warming trend

global warming deniers can only deny that there's a case to answer by concentrating on year-on-year variations and forgetting about the overall trend

Image

the interesting thing about it (at least for the UK) is that the overall record has been broken not by individual peak months but by an overall increase throughout the year without any record months

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Rory
Post  Post subject: Re: global warming has stalled ?  |  Posted: Wed Jan 07, 2015 1:10 am
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I'm curious as to how the remainder of the century will pan out: will extreme weather events including hurricanes, tornadoes, droughts, floods, forest fires become more intense? Will they become more frequent? Will the geographical patterns for those events change? Will a whole new scale of weather extremity become a daily reality e.g. hurricanes that sweep the globe? Just how much of a challenge will climate change pose to human societies? Will social and economic life as we know it today be rendered impossible by the end of the century? Will we stick to the 2C projection or hit 7C or above?

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marnixR
Post  Post subject: Re: global warming has stalled ?  |  Posted: Wed Jan 07, 2015 7:23 am
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as Niels Bohr used to say "it's hard to make predictions, especially about the future"
all i know is that current trends seem to indicate CO2 increases according a business-as-usual, which means we're certain to have temperature increases in excess of 2°C
apart from that, all bets are off - we don't know if the increase will be smooth or if after a certain tipping point things will start accelerating
i don't even know whether the jet stream will remain in its current behaviour, which is a very wavy front that sticks in the same position for a long time, so that droughts, icy blasts or stormy spells last for far longer than they used to
i also don't know what the increased sea ice cover in the antarctic winter means

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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: global warming has stalled ?  |  Posted: Wed Jan 07, 2015 6:12 pm
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Rory wrote:
I'm curious as to how the remainder of the century will pan out: will extreme weather events including hurricanes, tornadoes, droughts, floods, forest fires become more intense? Will they become more frequent? Will the geographical patterns for those events change? Will a whole new scale of weather extremity become a daily reality?

Yes.

Rory wrote:
Just how much of a challenge will climate change pose to human societies?

Significant, IMO.

Rory wrote:
Will social and economic life as we know it today be rendered impossible by the end of the century?

Here I say, no. Our existing systems (at least as I understand them) would still work fine. What needs to happen, though, is a shift in priorities among people and consumers themselves and a shift toward tighter regulations and protections from those we elect into office (i.e. vote FOR clean air and water instead of FOR unregulated casino-esque activity for the already wealthy businesses incentivized to pollute more).

Rory wrote:
Will we stick to the 2C projection or hit 7C or above?


Image

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Rory
Post  Post subject: Re: global warming has stalled ?  |  Posted: Wed Jan 07, 2015 10:09 pm
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How could our existing social and economic systems work fine under those conditions? The consumerist model relies on large scale manufacture and transportation of goods. The latter will quite obviously be adversely affected by extreme weather events but also by moderate weather events of long duration (e.g. even if high winds do not physically tip delivery trucks over, they will increase the resistance to travel and make travel more expensive). The former 'use and discard' model is largely responsible for climate change, so actually I would hope that it won't survive.

I wonder what implications an imminent climate catastrophe would have for the human 'meaning of life'. Currently most people derive a large proportion of their life meaning from considerations of their legacy by way of their descendent kin. If it looks like your grandchildren are not going to have a viable planet to live on, what meaning is there now in life? The whole species, in facing its collective mortality, might despair or celebrate having had an opportunity for life at all.

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marnixR
Post  Post subject: Re: global warming has stalled ?  |  Posted: Wed Feb 04, 2015 5:24 pm
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having investigated possible reasons of why antarctic sea ice increases during the southern winter, i think it may have to do with the melting of land ice in the antarctic summer

this would make the ocean around antarctica less salty and more likely to freeze over

i wonder how well this hypothesis will stand up to further investigation

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