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bunbury
Post  Post subject: El Nino coming (or not)  |  Posted: Thu Apr 10, 2014 3:43 am
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According to this blog we are headed for a monster el Nino this summer with all the bad effects that it brings,
http://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/
Quote:
Record global temperatures, extraordinarily severe storms for the US West Coast and telegraphing on through the Central and Eastern US, a disruption of the Asian Monsoon and various regional growing seasons, record heat and drought in Northern Australia, severe drought and fires in the Amazon, the same throughout Eurasia and into the Siberian Arctic, another potential blow to Arctic sea ice. These and further extreme impacts are what could unfold if the extraordinarily powerful Kelvin Wave now racing toward the Pacific Ocean surface continues to disgorge its heat.

However the NOAA website gives a much more muted prediction of a 50% chance of an el nino event occurring later this year. The Roberts blog is based on the same NOAA data but comes up with a much more dramatic prediction.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

In fact looking through the NOAA data I can see predictions of a sea surface temperature increase of 0.5 deg K where the Roberts blog mention 4 to 6 deg K, which seems outlandish. Is robertscribbler full of crap or what am I missing?


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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: El Nino coming (or not)  |  Posted: Thu Apr 10, 2014 3:42 pm
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And both are in kelvin? That IS strange...

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"[Time] is one of those concepts that is profoundly resistant to a simple definition." ~C. Sagan


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bunbury
Post  Post subject: Re: El Nino coming (or not)  |  Posted: Thu Apr 10, 2014 6:52 pm
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I may have used kelvins without checking what they used. But Kelvins or Celcius makes no difference for differences...and climatologists don't use Fahrenheit do they?


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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: El Nino coming (or not)  |  Posted: Fri Apr 11, 2014 10:28 pm
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Lol... good point, forgot about that. As for whether they use C or F... most papers I've read list both. Either way, it's unlikely the problem you describe is merely a difference in units. There truly does appear to be a massive delta between the numbers in those two sources.

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"[Time] is one of those concepts that is profoundly resistant to a simple definition." ~C. Sagan


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Snafuperman
Post  Post subject: Re: El Nino coming (or not)  |  Posted: Sun Sep 27, 2015 4:46 pm

Joined: Wed Sep 02, 2015 7:34 pm
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It looks like we're in a strong El Nino now. I know it is bad for some parts of the planet but here in the Sonoran Desert it can be a good thing: it usually means more rain. The last real strong El Nino effect here was the winter of 1997-1998.


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Snafuperman
Post  Post subject: Re: El Nino coming (or not)  |  Posted: Thu Jan 07, 2016 9:48 pm

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Getting lost and lots of rain, which is good. We need it.


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Pong
Post  Post subject: Re: El Nino coming (or not)  |  Posted: Sun May 29, 2016 8:49 am
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...aaaand now it's flipping to La Nina.

I gotta start a thread like this to log each glacial maximum.


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