According to this blog we are headed for a monster el Nino this summer with all the bad effects that it brings,http://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/
Record global temperatures, extraordinarily severe storms for the US West Coast and telegraphing on through the Central and Eastern US, a disruption of the Asian Monsoon and various regional growing seasons, record heat and drought in Northern Australia, severe drought and fires in the Amazon, the same throughout Eurasia and into the Siberian Arctic, another potential blow to Arctic sea ice. These and further extreme impacts are what could unfold if the extraordinarily powerful Kelvin Wave now racing toward the Pacific Ocean surface continues to disgorge its heat.
However the NOAA website gives a much more muted prediction of a 50% chance of an el nino event occurring later this year. The Roberts blog is based on the same NOAA data but comes up with a much more dramatic prediction.http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
In fact looking through the NOAA data I can see predictions of a sea surface temperature increase of 0.5 deg K where the Roberts blog mention 4 to 6 deg K, which seems outlandish. Is robertscribbler full of crap or what am I missing?