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iNow
Post  Post subject: Humanity will be extinct within 150 years  |  Posted: Fri Aug 23, 2013 11:24 pm
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Agree? Disagree? Why?
Discuss.

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imp
Post  Post subject: Re: Humanity will be extinct within 150 years  |  Posted: Sat Aug 24, 2013 6:56 am

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I don"t know how the hell the deadline can be arrived at, but will acquiese to the premise that humanity is indeed doomed. imp

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Prometheus
Post  Post subject: Re: Humanity will be extinct within 150 years  |  Posted: Sat Aug 24, 2013 10:25 am
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Not sure what data would be needed to even try to answer this question.

Reminds me of this story though:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K1aGxco-wcA


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bunbury
Post  Post subject: Re: Humanity will be extinct within 150 years  |  Posted: Sat Aug 24, 2013 2:45 pm
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Extinct meaning all gone completely without a single survivor, then no, humanity will not be extinct in 150 years and will be around for much longer.

Even if reduced to small dispersed clusters living primitively in Idaho and living on squirrel meat there will still be some humans left. They've already planned for it haven't they?


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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: Humanity will be extinct within 150 years  |  Posted: Sat Aug 24, 2013 6:22 pm
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Drought could be an issue, so I wonder about our available drinking water and arable crop land.

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bunbury
Post  Post subject: Re: Humanity will be extinct within 150 years  |  Posted: Sat Aug 24, 2013 11:58 pm
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There will always be enough food and water to sustain some minimal population. I bet they'll have beer too.


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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: Humanity will be extinct within 150 years  |  Posted: Sun Aug 25, 2013 12:52 am
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What if instead of saying humanity will be extinct within 150 years we say that humanity will have experienced a mass extinction event within 150 years? Does that change the calculus of your reaction at all?

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bunbury
Post  Post subject: Re: Humanity will be extinct within 150 years  |  Posted: Sun Aug 25, 2013 3:15 am
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I think you are really asking if there will be a huge reduction in human population, as opposed to extinction. I personally doubt it. The population is predicted to stabilize around 10 or 11 billion. This level may be unsustainable and may drop. I know some authors have written that the maximum sustainable population is far below that level, but to get back to a sustainable level does not necessarily mean some catastrophe has to happen. It could result from natural die of of old geezers like me and a reduced replacement rate.

What do you think a sustainable population size would be?


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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: Humanity will be extinct within 150 years  |  Posted: Sun Aug 25, 2013 1:01 pm
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That's a tough question, and just to be clear I'm not really saying anything specific with this thread. My focus is on getting a conversation going. That said, I think we could sustain a rather large population if we adjusted our behaviors to accommodate it. Right now, though, we're too wasteful and too focused on short-term gain instead of long-term sustainability, IMO. Living like we do today, we're already overpopulated, however, with a few relatively minor changes and tweaks and a bit of better planning I think we could probably sustain a far larger number of people and all without such a negative impact to non-human organisms.

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Moontanman
Post  Post subject: Re: Humanity will be extinct within 150 years  |  Posted: Sun Aug 25, 2013 11:15 pm
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150 years seems more than a bit quickly for humans to become extinct with out some sort of world wide catastrophe, I don't see anything like that likely to happen soon but it is evidently true that humans will become extinct. I think population mechanics would prohibit such a short time span for the demise of humanity at this point...


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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: Humanity will be extinct within 150 years  |  Posted: Mon Aug 26, 2013 4:32 am
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Moontanman wrote:
150 years seems more than a bit quickly for humans to become extinct with out some sort of world wide catastrophe, I don't see anything like that likely to happen soon but it is evidently true that humans will become extinct. I think population mechanics would prohibit such a short time span for the demise of humanity at this point...

Population mechanics?

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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: Humanity will be extinct within 150 years  |  Posted: Mon Aug 26, 2013 4:36 am
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Prometheus wrote:
Reminds me of this story though:

I saw a hole in the man... Indeed.

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Moontanman
Post  Post subject: Re: Humanity will be extinct within 150 years  |  Posted: Mon Aug 26, 2013 4:08 pm
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iNow wrote:
Moontanman wrote:
150 years seems more than a bit quickly for humans to become extinct with out some sort of world wide catastrophe, I don't see anything like that likely to happen soon but it is evidently true that humans will become extinct. I think population mechanics would prohibit such a short time span for the demise of humanity at this point...

Population mechanics?



Humans consist of populations, the death of individual humans is meaningless as long as the population continues to reproduce faster than individuals die. For all 7 billion or so humans to die in 150 years with out some sort of world wide catastrophe would be as close to impossible as I am willing to assert. Humans reproduce too fast with enough variation to almost certainly beat any thing less than an asteroid strike large to wipe out all or most of the rest of the biota on the earth. Even a old style total nuclear exchange would not have wiped out the entire human species...


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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: Humanity will be extinct within 150 years  |  Posted: Thu Aug 29, 2013 5:00 am
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Moontanman wrote:
For all 7 billion or so humans to die in 150 years with out some sort of world wide catastrophe would be as close to impossible as I am willing to assert.

This is the key point here. Is it truly that "close to impossible?"

Do not the odds of a major catastrophe increase each day given the way we're living? Whether it be climate, drought, flood, nuclear or chemical or biological attack, asteroid strike... I'm not trying to be the guy with the sandwich board standing on the corner screaming "the end is near!," but at least the issues with climate and drought and flood and wildfires seem particularly relevant now.

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Moontanman
Post  Post subject: Re: Humanity will be extinct within 150 years  |  Posted: Sun Sep 01, 2013 9:55 pm
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iNow wrote:
Moontanman wrote:
For all 7 billion or so humans to die in 150 years with out some sort of world wide catastrophe would be as close to impossible as I am willing to assert.

This is the key point here. Is it truly that "close to impossible?"

Do not the odds of a major catastrophe increase each day given the way we're living? Whether it be climate, drought, flood, nuclear or chemical or biological attack, asteroid strike... I'm not trying to be the guy with the sandwich board standing on the corner screaming "the end is near!," but at least the issues with climate and drought and flood and wildfires seem particularly relevant now.



Odds? The odds, what ever they are, of something bad happening tomorrow are the same as today or next week. 150 years is just too short a time for humans to all die out without some sort of immediate catastrophe.
As far as odds, things are better now than they ever have been, 40 years ago we were worried about nuclear war now we worry about the possibility of a nuclear strike involving one bomb instead of thousands of bomb, I like now better...


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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: Humanity will be extinct within 150 years  |  Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2013 6:15 am
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A fair point, and I don't disagree. I'm reminded by your post of Steven Pinker's recent book, The Better Angels of our Nature where he argues that humanity is more peaceful now than ever before, and uses hard numbers and evidence to demonstrate it. It may not seem that way with our sensationalist 24-hour news stations that are always pumping us with negative nonsense and giving us a population or sampling bias, but it's definitely true.

Where my concerns lately have been more piercing are on questions of resources, and specifically drought... so fresh water. I live in Texas, and the drought has been getting worse each year. The lakes around here are awful. Water restrictions... severe water restrictions are in place. Everything that should be green is brown and the dirt is cracking. The warming planet is changing weather patterns and in significant ways, and I don't see us doing anything meaningful as a culture to change, nor to mitigate our contributions of CO2 to the atmosphere. Part of me feels it's already too late... That it was too late a decade ago, and yet we're still not adjusting our behavior and lifestyle, in fact, we're continuing to increase our contributions.

These concerns are magnified when viewing the wildfires, or the impact of warmer weather and less precipitation on major crops and the yields of our primary food sources... on the acidification and the loss of coral and other "base of the food chain" biota. Things will get worse before they get better. I promise, I'm not channeling the various peak oil worriers that are out there, nor those that post right here at this site. I'm not sitting here with a tin foil cap or using a ham radio to prepare for armageddon or losing sleep over this topic, but it is something that bothers me and that I'd like to solve for. It can feel somewhat helpless at times.

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Moontanman
Post  Post subject: Re: Humanity will be extinct within 150 years  |  Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2013 3:56 pm
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The time frame of 150 years remains a bit extreme but long term global warming will extinguish all life on the Earth, just not any time soon. I am reminded of a passage in Revelations where God demands that the satan (yes, satan is an adjective not a noun or proper name) cause the Sun to scorch the Earth with great heat and the cities of the nations fall.

It struck me as interesting and i often wonder why the creationists haven't jumped on that one... It would seem to be ready made for their kind of reasoning...


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Moontanman
Post  Post subject: Re: Humanity will be extinct within 150 years  |  Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2013 4:02 pm
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Actually in the new testament it says an angel of the lord caused the sun to scorch the earth but if it had been in the old testament it would have said the satan... Satan was never a specific being in the old testament but an "angle" (should have been angel but if you think about it angle works too) sent to do God's bidding when he wanted something bad to happen...


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kojax
Post  Post subject: Re: Humanity will be extinct within 150 years  |  Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2013 4:25 pm
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Moontanman wrote:


Odds? The odds, what ever they are, of something bad happening tomorrow are the same as today or next week. 150 years is just too short a time for humans to all die out without some sort of immediate catastrophe.


Rising population, and increased buildup of CO2 in the atmosphere, together with new technologies that change our society with unpredictable effects. Those probably increase the odds over time.

Quote:
As far as odds, things are better now than they ever have been, 40 years ago we were worried about nuclear war now we worry about the possibility of a nuclear strike involving one bomb instead of thousands of bomb, I like now better...


You're happy that nuclear was has gone from "unthinkable" to "ok in moderation"? Probably this represents a shift in our leaders' thinking, where now instead of being afraid of nuclear war, they think they can tip toe up to the edge, and they won't fall over.


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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: Humanity will be extinct within 150 years  |  Posted: Fri Sep 06, 2013 3:32 am
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Well, that escalated quickly.

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/0 ... 0-percent/
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It looks as though an increase in temperatures for the Great Plains region of just one degree Celsius could cut down wheat production in Kansas by over 20 percent. Even under optimistic scenarios, the region is probably headed for three times that amount of warming by the end of the century, making Kansas a microcosm for the damage carbon emissions will do to human society.

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