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marnixR
Post  Post subject: global warming phase 1  |  Posted: Sat Jun 15, 2013 5:38 pm
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the question is this one : have the unusual weather patterns of the last few years over the UK anything to do with the initial phases of global warming, especially the decreasing ice cover over the north pole ?

just off the top of my head : unusually heavy and persistent snow in december 2010, summer weather at the start of october 2011, a very wet summer in 2012, and recently seasons that arrive a month later than usual this year

not surprising that the meteorologists scratch their head and try to figure out what's going on : Met Office holds emergency meeting to discuss Britain's increasingly unpredictable weather patterns

on a related note, it would be nice if Nigel Lawson's climate denial charity got a slap on the wrist for misleading the public, but i wouldn't hold my breath : the content of the article isn't as straightforward as the title

Lord Lawson's climate-change think tank risks being dismantled after complaint it persistently misled public

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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: global warming phase 1  |  Posted: Sat Jun 15, 2013 6:04 pm
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It's hard to pin the cause of weird whether down to one single thing, or to demonstrate that a warming climate is the primary driver, but all evidence certainly implies this. The warmer weather allows the air to hold a higher concentration of water vapor. The shifting ice changes ocean currents which changes the wind patterns and intensity, and moves where rains fall and where droughts occur. We cannot say with certainty that a warming climate is the primary reason for this strange weather, but we can say that everything we know about weather suggests we understand why it's getting weirder and weirder, and there are no valid competing hypotheses at this time.

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bunbury
Post  Post subject: Re: global warming phase 1  |  Posted: Sun Jun 16, 2013 3:21 pm
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Quote:
it would be nice if Nigel Lawson's climate denial charity got a slap on the wrist for misleading the public


Better yet, to be disbanded for repetitive lying.

I see old Benny Peiser is involved in that charity scam as well. I wondered where he had gone to ground.


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jimmydasaint
Post  Post subject: Re: global warming phase 1  |  Posted: Sun Jun 23, 2013 9:11 pm
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I thought local weather changes had to be evaluated over 30 years to actually see a trend. Still 27 years to go yet! My fear is that the North Sea will cool and then usher an era of especially cold seasons due to the interruption of the normal flow of the thermohaline circulation.

How anyone can deny climate change puzzles me.

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bunbury
Post  Post subject: Re: global warming phase 1  |  Posted: Sun Jun 23, 2013 10:33 pm
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Obama is set to make some big announcement this week on climate change. Apparently he will be using his executive powers to get around the congressional roadblock constructed by Boehner and his friends in coal and oil. As I understand it he can only act regarding existing law so it will be interesting to see exactly what he can do without congress.


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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: global warming phase 1  |  Posted: Sun Jun 23, 2013 11:52 pm
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It will almost certainly have something to do with the EPA and regulating CO2 as a pollutant, especially given how the supreme court has supported that classification (in the Massachusetts v. EPA case).

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Futilitist
Post  Post subject: Re: global warming phase 1  |  Posted: Mon Jun 24, 2013 4:30 am
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jimmydasaint wrote:
How anyone can deny climate change puzzles me.

Me too. It just doesn't make any sense to deny something that is so obviously true. It is exactly like denying the dire implications of peak oil.

Do you really think we could have an interruption of the normal flow of the thermohaline circulation? I remember hearing about that possibility way back in the 1980s. It could make life in England quite difficult considering how short their supplies of natural gas have been lately.

---Futilitist :ugeek:


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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: global warming phase 1  |  Posted: Mon Jun 24, 2013 5:29 am
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Futilitist wrote:
jimmydasaint wrote:
How anyone can deny climate change puzzles me.

Me too. It just doesn't make any sense to deny something that is so obviously true. It is exactly like denying the dire implications of peak oil.

I agree, but I think a better comparison is denial of evolution.

Futilitist wrote:
Do you really think we could have an interruption of the normal flow of the thermohaline circulation? I remember hearing about that possibility way back in the 1980s. It could make life in England quite difficult considering how short their supplies of natural gas have been lately.

A gentle reminder to participants: This is not a thread about peak oil. Posts trying to make it into one will be split off or simply deleted.

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marnixR
Post  Post subject: Re: global warming phase 1  |  Posted: Mon Jun 24, 2013 6:36 am
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and the outcome of the discussion : if you're going to visit the UK in the next few years during the summer, prepare for rainy weather

Scientists say UK wet summers down to Atlantic warming

combine that with a very late spring (some of my wild strawberries are still in flower!) and in centuries gone by this would have led to harvest failures and famine - hopefully we're better prepared this time round

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jimmydasaint
Post  Post subject: Re: global warming phase 1  |  Posted: Mon Jun 24, 2013 6:23 pm
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Futilitist wrote:
jimmydasaint wrote:
How anyone can deny climate change puzzles me.

Me too. It just doesn't make any sense to deny something that is so obviously true. It is exactly like denying the dire implications of peak oil.

Do you really think we could have an interruption of the normal flow of the thermohaline circulation? I remember hearing about that possibility way back in the 1980s. It could make life in England quite difficult considering how short their supplies of natural gas have been lately.

---Futilitist :ugeek:


The possible effects of global warming on the Thermohaline Circulation, where aquatic heat is brought to Northern Europe can be genuinely serious and possibly lead to temperature differences in Northern Europe. The worst case scenario in a collapse could mean temperature drops of up to 9 Centigrade. However, within that framework, there are also possibilities that the Atlantic Ocean is warming up. Too confusing for me, I like things nice and simple.

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marnixR
Post  Post subject: Re: global warming phase 1  |  Posted: Tue Jun 25, 2013 6:29 am
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there's quite a few variables that can be thrown in the mix, warmer ocean temperatures in the north atlantic being one of them
others are the effect on pressure systems from a more ice-free arctic, lower temperature difference between arctic and temperate latitudes, and unusual + persistent positioning of the jet stream

not sure if current climate models are up to dealing with this type of disturbance

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marnixR
Post  Post subject: Re: global warming phase 1  |  Posted: Sat Jul 06, 2013 2:21 pm
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so is this the answer ?

Britain basks in sunshine at last. But is it all part of the same global pattern of freak weather?

the arctic warms up faster than the temperate regions, the lower temperature difference slows down the speed of the jet stream, a slower jet stream no longer exhibits a smooth but a wavy front, and this wavy front remains in place for days or even weeks

result : not only unusually warm or cold or dry or wet weather, but weather that remains in place for a long time rather than coming and going

simples - but it also gives the lie to deniers who claim that deviations from a straight line warming must mean that global warming is a fraud
all it means is that global warming is not as simplistic as they think, and will show a lot of variation from one place to the next and from one time to the next

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marnixR
Post  Post subject: Re: global warming phase 1  |  Posted: Wed Jan 08, 2014 7:44 pm
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revived this thread because the following article highlights a few important issues

Can global warming be real if it’s cold in the U.S.? Um… yes!

imo the most important one is the meandering of the jet stream and the sticking of regional weather patterns in month-long cold periods, heat waves, droughts or storms - that's what has become more prominent in the last few years, and makes extreme weather patterns harder to bear if they last longer

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jackk
Post  Post subject: Re: global warming phase 1  |  Posted: Fri Jun 03, 2016 12:41 pm

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hello,

As we all know that Global Warming is become popular nowadays . This is the increasing of Earth's average surface temperature due to consequences of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels or from deforestation (cutting of trees) which trap heat that would otherwise escape from Earth.Global warming is the word used to describe a gradually increase in the average temperature of the Earth's atmosphere and its oceans, a modification that is believed to be permanently changing the Earth’s climate. A debate is arise among many people, and sometimes in the news, infact global warming is actual (some call it a hoax). But as a climate changes scientists looking at the facts and data agree the planet is warm.


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Lynx_Fox
Post  Post subject: Re: global warming phase 1  |  Posted: Fri Jun 03, 2016 7:34 pm

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jimmydasaint wrote:
I thought local weather changes had to be evaluated over 30 years to actually see a trend. Still 27 years to go yet! My fear is that the North Sea will cool and then usher an era of especially cold seasons due to the interruption of the normal flow of the thermohaline circulation.

How anyone can deny climate change puzzles me.


Yes and no. The 30 year criteria is mostly an artifact from statistical analysis (assumes normal distributions etc.). It's possible to get meaningful trends in as short as seven years, and perhaps more germane to the thread, do attribution studies on individual weather events and make reasonable conclusions by comparison to model simulations with and without baseline climate changes in forcing.


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danaabisov
Post  Post subject: Re: global warming phase 1  |  Posted: Sun Nov 13, 2016 4:21 pm

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Futilitist wrote:
jimmydasaint wrote:
How anyone can deny climate change puzzles me.

Me too. It just doesn't make any sense to deny something that is so obviously true. It is exactly like denying the dire implications of peak oil.


---Futilitist :ugeek:


This is so true...


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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: global warming phase 1  |  Posted: Sun Nov 13, 2016 4:54 pm
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Whether or not a supply shift in oil pushing us toward other energy sources will be dire remains to be seen.

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