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iNow
Post  Post subject: Predictive Policing through... Earthquake Models?!?  |  Posted: Wed Aug 17, 2011 8:59 pm
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I read a cool article today about a program they're testing in Santa Cruz, California which borrows from earthquake prediction models to anticipate when and where crimes will occur. It's called predictive policing.

http://www.smartplanet.com/blog/science ... odels/9840

Quote:
The Santa Cruz police department used eight years of crime data to make predictions about where crime will occur. The city streets were cut into sections of 500 feet by 500 feet. The program is fed new data, as new crimes occur. To figure out hotspots, officers used the program to determine areas likely to be crime scenes.

It can predict the day and time of the crime with 71 percent accuracy, according to CBS SF. As new data comes in, it gets recalibrated. The predictive policing program is part of a six month trial, which began last month. So far, researchers found that certain crime types show an elevated risk following an event, such as retaliation for inter-gang violence or burglars who return to the same or neighboring house days after the original crime occurred.

Image



Do you think this can be effective? Should it be used more?

Could there be unforeseen consequences?

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15uliane
Post  Post subject: Re: Predictive Policing through... Earthquake Models?!?  |  Posted: Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:06 pm
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I think it could be effective if they didn't put to much store in the predictions. The weather channel, after all, sometimes predicts sun and it rains.


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Falconer360
Post  Post subject: Re: Predictive Policing through... Earthquake Models?!?  |  Posted: Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:22 pm
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Well there definitely are natural patterns to how certain crimes play out. Typically its only noticeable when viewing the past crimes in an area. Its interesting that they have found a way that may be plausible for predicting upcoming crime. Obviously certain crimes are random and not entirely predictable. I say having some heads up of possible crime events is better than none.

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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: Predictive Policing through... Earthquake Models?!?  |  Posted: Tue Feb 21, 2012 4:43 am
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Looks like they're borrowing from the technology in use by Wal-mart and Amazon, too.


http://www.policechiefmagazine.org/maga ... _id=112009

Quote:
Companies like Wal-Mart have long understood the importance of being able to anticipate or predict future demand. For example, in anticipation of a large weather event, Wal-Mart may shift its supply chain to send duct tape, bottled water, and Pop-Tarts to the affected area in advance of the storm. Products like duct tape and bottled water make intuitive sense based on what we know of emergency preparations and response. This represents the confirmation in predictive analysis, confirming what we already know or think that we know. The Pop-Tarts, on the other hand, may seem odd. After years of experience with large weather events, Wal-Mart has found increased sales of Pop-Tarts associated with large weather events—strawberry Pop-Tarts, to be accurate.9 While speculation regarding the reasons for this observation may exist—Pop-Tarts can be eaten cold; they are tasty; kids like them—the important outcome in this situation is the ability to anticipate the increased demand and being able to adjust the supply chain accordingly to ensure that an adequate supply of strawberry Pop-Tarts is delivered to the stores in the affected area in advance of the storm when people are making their preparations. This is the discovery part of predictive analysis, which can be tremendously powerful in policing.

Risk-based deployment10 supports the optimization of public safety resources and assets, including personnel. Like the just-in-time supply chain analytics used by Wal-Mart to ensure that there are enough Pop-Tarts on hand in advance of an approaching storm, risk-based deployment has been demonstrated to effectively address the main goals of police deployment: allocate police resources when and where they are needed to prevent or deter crime through a strong police presence and to ensure the ability to respond rapidly by proactively positioning resources when and where they are likely to be needed in order to ensure a timely response. Ultimately, the incorporation of meaningful, operationally relevant analysis into information-based police tactics, strategy, and policy has been shown to increase public safety and change outcomes.

<...>

The online retailer Amazon has distinguished itself as an organization that has leveraged the complexity of its problem space. Patrons of this Web site are familiar with the phrase “Customers who bought this item also bought. . . .” This simple phrase demonstrates Amazon’s ability not only to segment their customer population but also to extend from it in a meaningful way. The ability to understand the unique groups in their customer base and to characterize their purchasing patterns allows Amazon not only to anticipate but also to promote or otherwise shape future behavior. This type of market segmentation and associated prediction of likely future behavior can be used to prioritize and preferentially allocate resources.

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Zinjanthropos
Post  Post subject: Re: Predictive Policing through... Earthquake Models?!?  |  Posted: Sun Mar 11, 2012 6:15 pm
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If you can predict where or when a crime will occur then how does that prevent it from happening? If you beef up the police presence in an area or at a certain time then I predict the crime scenes will move and the times will change. Once criminals catch on then they will adjust, like committing a crime at a place and time no one expects. It's a never ending game of cat & mouse.

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kojax
Post  Post subject: Re: Predictive Policing through... Earthquake Models?!?  |  Posted: Sat Mar 24, 2012 4:26 am
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Zinjanthropos wrote:
Once criminals catch on then they will adjust, like committing a crime at a place and time no one expects. It's a never ending game of cat & mouse.


If the algorithm is complicated enough, then they might not be able to figure it out.


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Zinjanthropos
Post  Post subject: Re: Predictive Policing through... Earthquake Models?!?  |  Posted: Sat Mar 24, 2012 3:35 pm
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kojax wrote:
Zinjanthropos wrote:
Once criminals catch on then they will adjust, like committing a crime at a place and time no one expects. It's a never ending game of cat & mouse.


If the algorithm is complicated enough, then they might not be able to figure it out.


I think the placement of surveillance cameras capable of recording high resolution images would do more. It seems like every time you look at current surveillance footage it seems like they're using the same cameras that photograph ghosts, Bigfoot, UFO's and lake monsters :D

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csiguy55
Post  Post subject: Re: Predictive Policing through... Earthquake Models?!?  |  Posted: Wed May 16, 2012 4:10 pm

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I think that with all the different innovations that goes on in our forensic field, this does not surprise me at all. I think it's a very cool concept and would be eager to see how effective it will be. I think that with all the time being spent by the <link removed by moderator> there will be plenty more of these kind of innovations to look forward to. I'm not sure exactly how the Earthquake models will help in all the right ways but this is one example of what is being researched and studied in the forensics department. If you are interested in this field I would check out <link removed by moderator> that offers any questions you have about getting into the field, different programs, career opportunities etc.

I feel that this is a great start to whats to come in our safety task force department and from different articles I have read and different crime cases that have been documented, it's just the beginning.


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iNow
Post  Post subject: Re: Predictive Policing through... Earthquake Models?!?  |  Posted: Sat Aug 04, 2012 3:35 pm
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Another interesting talk along similar lines...


Is life really that complex?


http://www.ted.com/talks/hannah_fry_is_ ... mplex.html

Quote:
Can an algorithm forecast the site of the next riot? In this accessible talk, Mathematician Hannah Fry shows how complex social behavior can be analyzed and perhaps predicted through apt analogies to natural phenomena, like the patterns of a leopard's spots or the distribution of predators and prey in the wild.

Hannah Fry researches the trends in our civilization and ways we can forecast its future.

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